Georgia, Moldova and Azerbaijan, which have been under Russian coercion for years, could be a reservation.
Russia 's war against Ukraine is failing . But serious dangers remain. Among them is peace on conditions similar to those imposed by Russia on its previous victims, so that Ukraine would bleed for years.
Vladimir Putin is likely to offer conditions that at first glance will seem concessions, but are designed to slow down Ukraine's development and threaten security even outside it, according to the Wall Street Journal. Ukrainians will not agree to this, and others should not try to force them to accept such an insidious offer.
The recent Russian wars can tell in detail what Putin has in mind about Ukraine. In Georgia, where he invaded in 2008, in Moldova, where Russian troops have never left, and in Azerbaijan, where Moscow has supported Armenian separatists since the early 1990s, fighting has stopped but uncertainty continues. Russian forces – a mixture of local apostates and Kremlin militants – continue to dig along the semi-official lines of the ceasefire. With the support of Russia, the feudal lords of these puppet formations still control foreign territories. And it is the conditions of the ceasefire that guarantee their existence. Without a hot war and a lasting peace, these truces are deliberately exhausting the victims of the Russian attack. Moscow is using so-called “peace processes” to prevent the stabilization of neighboring countries wishing to emerge from Russia's shadow.
The Kremlin's allusions indicate that this is how Putin intends to benefit from his failed invasion. It may seem like a good option, but it really isn't. If Russia gets what it wants, then the shadow of fabricated “separatism,” false independence movements, and similar forms of sabotage that Putin will come up with will hang over other regions. Fake referendums and forced population exchanges are likely to affect more than two or three regions of Ukraine. Even if Putin shows restraint at first, he will already have convenient outposts to do even more damage in the future. At the end of the game he is playing, Ukraine will face no better fate than Georgia, Moldova or Azerbaijan, which have been suffering from intimidation of Russia for many decades.
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The West has tolerated Russia's strategy of creating and supporting “frozen conflicts” against smaller neighbors. This convinced Putin in 2014 that he could safely occupy Crimea and start a separatist war in Donetsk and Luhansk. Reconciliation with such a result of the war in Ukraine would be a big mistake. Europe's security risks are obvious. Ukraine is more than any previous victims of Russian aggression and intrigue after the truce. It borders four NATO countries: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. It could also set a precedent for the other three countries of the alliance that were once under the direct control of the USSR: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Constant uncertainty and destabilization in Ukraine are unacceptable.
The horrors that Russia has created for peaceful Ukrainians add urgency to the search for peace. Ukraine may, within reasonable limits, consider concessions on the timing and terms of accession to NATO or the EU. But concessions that will bring Russia a permanent lever of influence on it will not bring any peace. They will only allow a new war to be prepared. This is exactly the condition Putin would like to receive. President Vladimir Zelensky, who insists that Ukraine will not agree to ultimatums, sees the danger of accepting Putin's terms. If the world wants to see a peaceful and secure Europe, it must not impose on Kiev a decision that ignores the lessons of other countries where Russia has got everything it wants.
See the special topic: In the liberated Trostyanets, communication is being restored and humanitarian aid is being received. The central part of the city has been severely damaged and the station area has been completely destroyed. Russia has plans for 30 and 60 days after the start of a full-scale invasion – intelligence But Ukraine is ready for a long confrontation. Russia is increasing troops around Kiev and preparing for an attack, despite statements about changing tasks – the General Staff of the APU Russia also continues to recruit “volunteers” and in unrecognized South Ossetia is conducting a covert mobilization. Zelensky handed Putin a peace note, but the dictator promised to destroy Ukraine – The Times And the Turkish side offered to transfer the occupied territories of Donbass and Crimea to “long-term lease” of Moscow. Russia has transferred 150 people from occupied South Ossetia to Crimea. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces says they are involved in other regions of Ukraine . Russia is also recruiting “volunteers” to ensure the occupation “order” in the occupied territories. Accept persons with a criminal record.
