Trying to break into Transnistria will create more problems than it will solve.
After two months of invasion of Ukraine, Russian military commander suggested that Moscow's goal is to establish a land corridor through Ukraine's southern regions to Transnistria in Moldova. “, – said the commander of the Central Military District of the Russian Federation Rustam Minnekayev.
It is unclear whether his words reflect the Kremlin's official position. At the same time, the comment surprised many analysts, writes the Washington Post. Because in the first weeks of the war Russia tried to move further to the south-west of Ukraine, but failed. At the same time, the international region has once again started discussing the occupied region of Moldova and the direct threat posed by it. Chisinau summons Russian ambassador to express “deep concern” in Minnekayev's words.
“These statements are unfounded and contradict the position of the Russian Federation to support the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova within its internationally recognized borders,” said Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu.
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Analysts doubt that the Russian army, immersed in battles in eastern Ukraine, will be able to break through to Transnistria. Despite the fact that Moscow supports the government in the enclave, and there are already Russian troops in the region, this does not mean that the local population wants to go to war.
What is Transnistria?
< p>This is a thin strip of land that lies along the border of Moldova with Ukraine. About 500 thousand people live there. No country in the world, including Russia itself, recognizes this territory as an independent state. However, she lives with her own “government”, which Chisinau does not control. Russian troops have been based in Transnistria for decades, calling themselves “peacekeepers.” Their number in the enclave is about 1,500 soldiers. Moldovans are making fun of Transnistria, which is stuck in the Soviet era. Monuments to Lenin are standing, maps of international banks are not working, and one company called “Sheriff” controls virtually everything. Freedom House sees Transnistria as a “non-free” territory with increasingly limited political competition, political dominance of local businesses and the suppression of dissent.
Why Russia Transnistria?
According to political analyst Anton Barshanin, the idea of establishing a geographical connection with Transnistria “has been discussed since the 1990s.” Russia has long been trying to maintain centers of influence throughout Eastern Europe. It continues to support Transnistria with free gas and pension supplements, helping the breakaway region stay afloat. Minnekayev spoke of the desire to pave the way for the “Russian-speaking population” in the enclave, because it allegedly suffers “oppression” there. Moscow has repeatedly used the Russian language to justify the war against Ukraine.
Read also: The probability of invasion from Belarus is higher than from Transnistria – State Border Guard Service
When Moldova applied for EU membership after Kyiv in early March, Transnistrian leaders announced that they were not going to do the same. They began to demand the creation of “two independent states.” But Transnistria itself is of no strategic value to Moscow. Sending troops there will create more problems than it solves. Because Russia will find itself under even more international sanctions. And relations with Moldova, which constantly emphasizes its neutrality and refusal to join NATO, will come to an end.
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