The former Chinese diplomat has backed away from Beijing, which officially refuses to condemn Russia's war against Ukraine.
Former Chinese Ambassador to Ukraine Gao Yusheng gave an unusual critical assessment of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He is convinced that Russia is losing the war . He also pointed out that Vladimir Putin's imperial ambitions were the biggest threat to European security.
According to the Washington Post, the ex-ambassador expressed his comments at a forum at the Chinese State Academy of Social Sciences. Gao Yusheng headed the Chinese diplomatic mission in Ukraine in 2005-2007. He is convinced that Russia's military efforts are doomed to failure due to economic and military mistakes in Putin's policies.
The comments of the former Chinese ambassador were published by the Hong Kong newspaper Phoenix. However, the article was soon removed. However, the web archive of the article has been preserved. Then ZN.UA provides a translation of this archive copy.
The Russian-Ukrainian war is the most important international event since the end of the Cold War. In fact, it gave rise to a new international order. In this war, Russia is taking an increasingly passive and unfavorable position, leading to its defeat. There are several main sources of Russian failure.
First, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was in a historical process of constant decline. This decline was primarily a continuation of the Soviet fall, but also due to the mistakes of Russia's ruling elite in domestic and foreign policy. Western sanctions have increased the intensity of this process. The so-called revival or revitalization of Russia under Vladimir Putin is a misconception that never existed. Russia's decline is manifested in economic, military, scientific and technical, political, social and other spheres. It has a very negative effect on the Russian army and its combat effectiveness.
Secondly, the failure of the Russian “blitzkrieg” and the inability to quickly notice the signs of this failure. Russia's economic and financial resources do not correspond to its status as a military superpower. They are not enough to support high-tech wars that cost hundreds of millions of dollars a day. The humiliation of the Russian army due to poverty is evident in every corner of the battlefield. Every day of this war is a huge burden for Russia.
Third, Russia's military and economic superiority over Ukraine has been offset by the determination and tenacity of the Ukrainian resistance, as well as by huge and effective Western support. .
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Fourth, the modern way of waging war combines operations conducted in military, economic, diplomatic, propaganda, intelligence , information spheres. Russia is not just passive on the battlefield, it has also lost on other fronts. This means that its defeat is only a matter of time.
Fifth, the end and outcome of the war no longer depend on Russia. Her plan to end the conflict as soon as possible, provided she was guaranteed key demands. From this point of view, Moscow has lost its strategic leadership and initiative.
The strength and intensity of the confrontation in the next phase of the war may change. The escalation of the conflict cannot be ruled out. Because the goals of all parties involved are diametrically opposed. Consolidating control over Crimea and Donbass is obviously critical for Russia. Ukraine will not give up its sovereignty and territorial integrity. It seeks to regain control of Donbass and Crimea by military means. The United States, NATO and the EU have openly reiterated that their goal is to defeat Putin. Jake Sullivan, the US president's national security adviser, recently named three goals that Washington is pursuing in the Russian-Ukrainian war: first, preserving an independent and free Ukraine, second, weakening and isolating Russia, and third, consolidating a strong West. To achieve this goal, the United States, NATO, and the EU have not only significantly increased aid to Ukraine, but have approved land leases for the first time since World War II. The United States has internationalized and institutionalized support for Ukraine, bringing together 41 defense ministers. More importantly, the direct involvement of the United States, Britain, and other countries in this war is deepening and expanding. All this means that the war will continue until Russia is defeated and punished.
The Russian-Ukrainian war will have serious consequences for the international order. She finally put an end to the Yalta system and the remnants of the Cold War. The world began to move towards new laws and order in international relations. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited the status of a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a military superpower. Russia has preserved and maintained much of the Soviet heritage in domestic political, economic, social, cultural, and ideological aspects. And Moscow's foreign policy was a mixture of the practices of the USSR and Saudi Arabia. The core and main direction of Putin's foreign policy was to consider all post-Soviet countries as their exclusive sphere of influence, as well as to restore the empire through integration mechanisms centered on Russia. Therefore, Moscow very often broke its own promises. It has never truly recognized the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of post-Soviet countries, often violating both. This is the greatest threat to peace, security and stability in Eurasia.
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The Russian-Ukrainian war is changing the situation greatly. After the declaration of independence, and especially since 2000, there were two factions in Ukraine, one of which promoted a pro-Western course and the other a pro-Eastern one. They were in fact equivalent and replaced each other through elections. After Russia annexed Crimea and occupied part of Donbass in 2014, anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine has risen. And pro-Russian political forces began to shrink. Most Ukrainians, not only in the west but also in the east, now support joining the EU and NATO. The current war has fundamentally changed the situation. There is no longer a party in Ukraine, no region, no class that does not support the fight against Russia and does not seek to defend its country. We can safely say that Russia has lost Ukraine. At the same time, other post-Soviet countries, with the exception of Belarus, refused to support Moscow in the war. Even CSTO members did not. Russia's defeat will ultimately deprive the Kremlin of the opportunity to rebuild the former empire.
Seeking to restore the international status and influence of the USSR by destroying the current international order and changing the geopolitical map of Eurasia, Russia has constantly sought to unite the post-Soviet countries. Because of this, it is in constant conflict with the United States and the West. In fact, this struggle between them was a continuation of the Cold War. It also has a certain ideological color. The war in Ukraine will lead to the complete defeat of Russia in this confrontation with the West and the United States. The order that was established after the Cold War is now completely destroyed. Here are some points about the potential evolution of the international order after the Russian-Ukrainian war.
First, Russia will be severely weakened, isolated and punished in political, economic, military, domestic and other aspects. Russian power will weaken even more. She may be expelled from some important international organizations. And its international status will be significantly reduced.
Secondly, Ukraine will finally withdraw from Russia's sphere of influence (if Russia has one at all) and become a member of the European family, and therefore of the West.
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Third, other post-Soviet countries will begin to demonstrate a new level of de-Russification. And some will revive the movement to the West. Japan and Germany will completely get rid of all the restrictions that were imposed on them as winners of World War II. They will become even more active in pursuing the status of an international political force. However, they will not leave the Western camp and will not completely abandon the policy of peaceful development.
Fourth, the United States and other Western countries will actively promote major reforms in the UN and other important international organizations. If these reforms are blocked, they will try to push them again.
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