The split among Russia's elites is growing, with oligarchs and officials worried about economic losses due to the war against Ukraine.
After more than two months of Russia's war against Ukraine the silence or even the tacit consent of the Russian elites began to be broken. Polls suggest widespread support for military aggression. But despite this, a split in Moscow became noticeable.
Lines of disagreement over the war have emerged among Russia's economic elite. And the oligarchs, especially those who became rich before Vladimir Putin came to power, began to speak cautiously against, – writes the Washington Post. Most of them focus on their own troubles. Western sanctions have lowered the Iron Curtain on the Russian economy, freezing tens of billions of dollars in Russia's wealth at the same time.
In one day, they destroyed everything we had built for years. This is a catastrophe, “said an unnamed Russian businessman who was among the richest Russians invited to meet with Putin on the day of the invasion.
At least four oligarchs who made their fortunes in Boris Yeltsin's more liberal times have fled Russia. Four other high-ranking officials resigned and also left the country. The highest among them was Anatoly Chubais, who was the Kremlin's special representative for relations with international organizations for sustainable development. Under Yeltsin, he was the author of Russian privatization. But those who hold key positions to ensure the functioning of the state remained. Some of them are trapped and cannot leave, even if they want to. Among them is the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, who resigned immediately after the West imposed sanctions. But Putin refused to release her, as five informed people said.
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Several Russian billionaires, bankers, current and former officials told the Washington Post about their fear of punishment. They say the increasingly isolated Russian autocrat is no longer paying attention to them. And they can't influence him in any way. Because Putin is surrounded by only a few of the toughest security forces. All the complaints that have been made public so far have been quiet. This was largely a critique of the government's response to Western sanctions. No one dares to directly criticize Putin.
Metallurgical tycoon Vladimir Lisin, who became a billionaire under Yeltsin, criticized the Russian parliament for its initiative to force foreign buyers to pay in rubles for Russia's exports of raw materials, including gas. Lisin argued that the move could undermine export markets, for which Russia has “fought for decades.” And the requirement to switch to Russian currency “will lead to the fact that we will simply be thrown out of international markets.” Norilsk Nickel owner Vladimir Potanin, who also participated in the development of the privatization process in Russia in the 1990s, criticized the proposal to confiscate the assets of foreign companies that left the Russian market. He claimed that this would destroy investment confidence in Russia and throw the country away in 1917.
Oligarch Oleg Deripaska, who also became rich under Yeltsin, went further than anyone. He called the war against Ukraine “madness.” Although the oligarch also focused on economic losses. He expressed confidence that the sanctions in Russia would start a financial crisis worse than the one that occurred in 1998. He criticized the Putin regime for 14 years of state capitalism, which “yielded neither economic growth nor an increase in income.” In his Telegram channel, the oligarch wrote that the Russians will be “ashamed for a very long time” during the war against Ukraine.
“We lost everything”
with Putin a few hours after the invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, many were shocked and depressed.
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“Everyone was in a terrible mood. Everyone was crushed there, “said one participant.
I've never seen them so stunned. Some of them couldn't even speak, “another Russian billionaire told the Washington Post.
Traditionally, Kremlin guests have been forced to wait two hours before Putin appears in Catherine's Hall. Enough time to realize your destiny. For some businessmen who quietly discussed the aftermath of Putin's war, it was a moment when they realized that it was over for their business empires. And all the efforts in 30 years were erased in an instant.
“Some of them said: we have lost everything,” recalled one of the participants in the meeting.
When Putin arrived, no one dared to protest. With stony faces, billionaires sat and listened to the autocrat assure them that Russia would remain part of global markets. Sanctions soon dispelled these promises. Putin told the audience that he had no choice but to start his “special operation.” The Kremlin has since persecuted anyone criticizing the war, hastily passing new laws, including 15 years in prison, for any remarks the government sees as a lie about the Russian military. New deputies have appeared in Russian ministries to inform the Kremlin about the “emotional climate and mood.” One oligarch said he expected more “cannibalistic” suppression of dissenters.
Putin's war seems to have shocked not only billionaires but the color of Russia's elite, including government technocrats and some members of the security services. This was told to the Washington Post by Russian billionaires and former officials who remained in Moscow.
I didn't know anything, “said an unnamed Russian billionaire.
Despite warnings from US intelligence, elites in Moscow were convinced that Putin would limit himself to the occupied parts of Donbas. Officials in the financial and economic apparatus thought that “actions in Donetsk and Luhansk will be limited, they were preparing for that.”
“They were preparing for Western sanctions, including disconnection from SWIFT. But they were not ready for all this, “said the interlocutor of the publication.
The losses of the Russian army in the war against Ukraine are growing. So the war is now disliked not only by the sanctioned oligarchs, but also by some members of the defense establishment. One of the interlocutors of the Washington Post even pointed to Sergei Shoigu himself, who was involved in the preparation of the war.
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“They all want a normal life. They have houses, children, grandchildren. They do not need war. None of them are suicidal. Everyone wants to live normally. They want their children to have everything and be able to travel to the best places in the world, “an unnamed Russian told reporters.
Russia's elites are particularly concerned about growing problems with access to foreign accounts. Some officials tried to defend themselves by transferring money to the accounts of their partners. But now these accounts are blocked.
Yeltsin's oligarchs and Putin's oligarchs
Those who left Russia immediately after the invasion of Ukraine began are mostly Yeltsin-era oligarchs. Among them are Alexander Mamut and Alexander Nesis, who own Polymetal. Michael Friedman and Piotr Aven from Alfa Group also left the country. Other billionaires could not leave because sanctions locked them in Moscow. Other businessmen fear revenge if they dare to leave Russia. Their companies can be selected by the government, – said an unnamed businessman from Moscow. Some billionaires are just trying to save “their skin”.
“It is possible not to support the war, but it is better to keep silent about it and support your compatriots. Because soldiers die there. You can leave the country because you don't like the situation, everyone doesn't like it. But you better keep your opinion to yourself, “explained one of the billionaires who took part in a meeting in the Kremlin on February 24.
Those who dare to speak in public are billionaires who remember other times. They made their fortunes under Yeltsin, even before Putin took office. On the other hand, Putin's friends from St. Petersburg, who became fabulously rich thanks to him: Gennady Timchenko, Yuri Kovalchuk and Arkady Rotenberg, are keeping quiet.
“They will never oppose Putin. They started with him, he made them multibillionaires. Why should they bite the hand that feeds them? ” said an unnamed Western banker who worked with Russian oligarchs.
In addition to these loyal billionaires, there is an army of officials and company executives in Moscow who are not at all worried about Russia's economic isolation. According to former Kremlin insider Sergei Pugachev, they only complain about the poor training of the Russian army. There are now many middle-ranking government officials who have set aside millions of dollars in private accounts and bought real estate in Europe.
“But they are still ministers in Russia. If you can't go to Austria, they will go to Sochi. This is not a problem for them, “Pugachev said.
At first glance, it may seem that the Russian economy has stabilized after the initial shock of sanctions. Daily revenue of $ 800 million from oil and gas sales to Europe has helped. The central bank forced exporters to sell 80% of its foreign exchange reserves. This helped curb the fall of the ruble. And Putin was able to declare that the “economic blitzkrieg” against Russia had failed.
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But earlier this month, Nabiullina warned that Russia's full influence have not yet felt. And the worst is yet to come. The industry is highly dependent on imported components. And stocks are running out.
“We are entering a difficult period of structural change. The period when the economy could live on reserves is over, “the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation admitted.
In such circumstances, according to Pugachev, Putin's position is shaky. The propaganda machine put the population to sleep by hiding the death toll in the Russian army. And sanctions have not yet begun to hurt everyone.
“But in three months, stores and factories will run out of stock. And the scale of the losses in the Russian army will become obvious, “he said.
Despite the deadly blow to their interests, Russia's business elites seem to be frozen in fear. But, according to an unnamed Russian businessman, if the war drags on and the defeat becomes apparent, then the chances of resistance inside will increase.
“The battle for Donbas will be important. If it does not succeed, then a great battle will break out inside Russia between the elites, “he said.
It will be recalled that on April 27, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he did not object if Ukraine used the weapons provided to it against targets in Russia. He noted that our state has the right to defend itself. And the first public this thesis supported by the Minister of the Armed Forces of the United Kingdom James Gippi. He stressed that weapons from the West even have the necessary range. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Ukraine has the right to do whatever it takes to defend its land.
What foreign experts predict – read in the article by Tatiana Silina “Battle for Donbas: why Putin should lose” for ZN.UA.
“span class =” sptm_title “> See the special topic: The Russians sent the mother of the Ukrainian prisoner of war a photo of her dead son – the media This is another war crime of the occupiers. The Russian Army is preparing for even greater intensification of hostilities in eastern Ukraine – Motuzyanyk The greatest activity of the Russian Federation is now observed in Slobozhansky and Donetsk areas. Seven people, including children, were injured in the enemy shelling of Dobropillya. One of the victims is in the surgical department. Russia lacks high-precision missiles – FT And racist shelling is “stupid”. The occupiers are so eager to flee the war in Ukraine that they are ready to drive fragments into their bodies – SBU audio interception Some invaders are ready to flee to Russia as soon as possible.
