The reasons for the new pandemics will be global warming and deforestation, and the main carriers – bats.
Warming of the Earth's climate is expected to change habitat many species of animals, which will cause the exchange of viruses between them and outbreaks of new diseases among both animals and humans.
These are the conclusions of a modeling team led by Colin Carlson, a global change biologist at Georgetown University (Washington, DC, USA). A study report published April 29 in the journal Nature in the article “Climate change increases the risk of interspecific transmission of the virus.”
others with whom they have never been in contact before, which will lead to the exchange of viruses. This can trigger new outbreaks among different wildlife populations and among humans.
Under the most conservative warming scenario, there will be at least 15,000 new interspecific virus transmissions involving more than 3,000 mammal species by 2070, according to the model.
which has already happened. However, he said, “most species on Earth have not yet met each other.” Scientists have tried to predict what will happen next.
The author of the article writes that some conclusions of the study surprised him. In particular, bats, which make up about 20% of all mammals, will affect the transmission of viruses due to their ability to fly. but also from the valleys to the highlands of Asia and Africa.
For a specific example, the team conducted a study of the migration of the Ebola virus in Zaire, which they predict has 13 possible carrier mammals. Scientists have estimated that the least dramatic climate change scenario could lead to the virus being involved in more than 2,000 clashes between two species, of which nearly 100 could lead to the virus moving from one species to another. This could lead to the extinction of some of these species, as well as Ebola infection in the Horn of Africa in East Africa, where the disease has not been observed before.
Carlson says that although there is no way to prevent mixing species , which is caused by climate change, but he believes we can reduce the risks to humans. In particular, to prevent pandemics, threats from wildlife markets and deforestation, which increase the frequency of human-mammalian contact, should be ruled out.
Read also: Coronavirus in India: a day from A record number of people have died, according to the pandemic coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which was recorded in late December 2019 in the Chinese metropolis of Wuhan. The most credible version of the pandemic is the transmission of the coronavirus from bats to humans in the wildlife market.
