According to the expert, such institutions can be calculated on the basis of an increase in interest rates on deposits.
Does the Association of Ukrainian Banks expect Ukraine to have a new “bankruptcy” and which 20 banks could have in mind when talking about their possible bankruptcy, CASE Ukraine expert said, UBR.ua reports.
Thus, the associate expert of CASE Ukraine, former Deputy Director of the Financial Stability Department of the NBU Eugene Dubogryz believes that AUB meant private banks, which have the largest share of NBU refinancing in the entire fund.
” Nobody knows which bank has which loans and which collateral, this is confidential information. There are, for example, regional banks, such as Metabank, head office in Zaporozhye. Who he gave loans, no one knows, Zaporozhye nearby with the front, “says the expert.
At the same time, it is possible to calculate many institutions that have a large share of liabilities to the regulator and promptly raised interest rates on deposits as of May 1 . That is, these are the banks that now really need money to quickly repay the refinancing loans.
According to the expert, their list includes:
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This does not mean that all or even some of these financial institutions will go bankrupt, but it does indicate that they have problems with income after raising the discount rate, and that this can lead to major problems during the war.
Read also: One hundred percent guarantees of bank deposits
We will remind, earlier in the Association of Ukrainian Banks (AUB) say about 20 banks are at risk of bankruptcy , which is almost a third of the total. The reason for the possible bankruptcy is the record increase in the NBU discount rate from 10% to 25%. under 9% and invested this money in IGLBs on average 12%. Now we will have to return the money to the National Bank by 27%, which will deal a severe blow.
We will also remind that in early April the Verkhovna Rada passed a law Deposit Guarantee Fund for Martial Law.
Read also: Deposits in wartime: the Guarantee Fund told how 100% refund will work
That is, to date, the reimbursement of deposits to the population is not within the guaranteed amount – 200 thousand UAH, but for all 100% .
The effect of this This Regulation applies to banks whose decision to withdraw from the market will be made after the entry into force of this Law.
Three months after the termination or abolition of martial law, the guaranteed amount of deposits will be at least UAH 600,000.
“text-align: justify;”> Megabank was declared insolvent in Ukraine on June 3.
Read also: Liquidation of Megabank may indicate the beginning of problems in the banking system of Ukraine: what not so with the bankruptcy of the bank
As of March 1, 2022, the Deposit Guarantee Fund paid UAH 95.7 billion to depositors of insolvent banks.
During 2014-2016, the Fund attracted to the Ministry to ensure the payment of guaranteed compensation Finance and the National Bank loans totaling about UAH 80 billion. The cost of borrowing ranged from 9.99 to 14%.
To date, the Fund has fully settled with the NBU, paying UAH 25.6 billion, of which UAH 5.5 billion. – accrued interest. He also transferred UAH 21.7 billion to the Ministry of Finance (including ahead of schedule), of which UAH 7.9 billion. – interest. The balance of the Fund's debt is UAH 108.3 billion. – UAH 45.7 billion. at the face value of promissory notes, for which the Fund must pay UAH 62.5 billion by the end of 2031. interest.
Read also: Deposits in wartime: why bank deposits continue to grow despite meager rates
About two thirds of Ukrainian banks report an increase in deposits of Ukrainian citizens. And this despite the fact that the size of the deposit rate since the beginning of the war in Ukraine has been declining by about 1% every month. At the same time, the banks themselves now simply do not need the money of depositors, because they have almost nowhere to invest, writes in his article for ZN.UA “Deposits in wartime: why deposits in banks continue to grow , despite the meager stakes “ Artur Fedorchuk.
