Putin's nuclear rhetoric has become more decisive.
US officials believe that the probability of use by the president Vladimir Putin's use of tactical nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine may now be the highest since Russia launched its invasion in February, but that remains unlikely, officials familiar with the latest intelligence told CNN.
The intelligence community is watching closely for any signs that Putin's calculus has changed since the Russian president stepped up his threats to use nuclear weapons last week.
According to sources, the threat is definitely “increased” compared to the beginning of the year. In recent months, the US has privately warned Russia against taking such a catastrophic step. There is currently no indication that Russia plans to use nuclear weapons in the near future, and “the overall assessment of the situation has not changed,” a CNN source reported.
Several US defense officials, who also said that at this while they see no signs of Russia moving nuclear weapons, believe that it is likely that the United States can detect the movement of even smaller tactical warheads.
Officials have long believed that Putin would turn to nuclear weapons only if there was a threat to his power or if he saw an “existential threat to Russia itself,” which could be the case if he loses the war against Ukraine.
Some military analysts believe that Putin's partial mobilization order may actually reduce the short-term risk that he will use nuclear weapons on the battlefield because it would prolong his ability to wage a conventional war.
According to two CNN sources, the general feeling within the US government that the threat is greater than before is based primarily on Putin's rhetoric and analysis of his thinking amid Russian losses in Ukraine, rather than any concrete evidence that Russia is more serious is considering the nuclear option.
For example, some officials worry that Putin may go to extreme lengths to protect Russian-occupied territory in eastern Ukraine amid mock referendums there that are expected to lead to the forced annexation of the territory. Putin also said last week that Russia's threats to deploy nuclear weapons “are not a bluff.”
However, the intelligence community's view of Putin's decision-making calculations is flawed, and multiple sources acknowledged that even slightly more the possibility of using nuclear weapons is a cause for concern. Russia's dismal record in the war and Ukraine's success in its recent offensive in the northeast have left Moscow with fewer options on the battlefield.
“It's hard to track exactly if/when he will issue such an order, or how his mental calculus is unfolding,” one source said.
Russia unlikely to use 'strategic' nuclear weapons
Few believe that Russia will use “strategic” nuclear weapons — warheads that have an explosive yield of 500 to 800 kilotons and are designed to destroy entire cities. “Tactical” or “combat” warheads, also known as “low power” warheads, are intended for use on the battlefield. They have an explosive power of 10 to 100 kilotons. But they can still be very deadly: the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan in 1945 were equivalent to about 15 to 21 kilotons, respectively.
Some analysts believe that perhaps more important is , how the warhead is used, not its power. Some officials, such as former US Defense Secretary James Mattis, have said that the distinction between “tactical” and “strategic” nuclear weapons is arbitrary. Using any of them would cross a line that hasn't been crossed since 1945.
Officials familiar with the intelligence say Putin has several options for how he might deploy such a weapon. He can test it at sea as a demonstration of strength and an attempt to obtain concessions from the West or Ukraine. Or he could use it in Ukraine, on the battlefield, or in a separate settlement – an option that, according to several American officials, would instantly make him an outcast on the world stage. Some officials believe that even countries like China and India would move to isolate Russia if Putin took such a drastic step.
The US response will depend on which of these options Putin chooses. The US response will be “consistent” but will depend “on what they do,” said US President Joe Biden, without providing further details.
In his speech last week, Putin warned that “in the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation, to protect Russia and Russians,” he will definitely use all available weapons systems, stressing that “this is not a bluff.”
Representatives The US notes that this is not the first time that Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons since the start of the war against Ukraine in February, although some analysts consider this threat to be more specific and escalating than the Russian president's past rhetoric.
The US also tried to deter Russia from using nuclear weapons in public warnings and made this issue a topic of discussion at the UN General Assembly in New York. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said last week that “the Russian Federation must immediately stop reckless nuclear threats.” , that the intelligence services of the United States and its allies are stepping up efforts to identify any Russian military actions or messages that may signal that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has ordered the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
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The United States is also developing an action plan in case of the use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation.
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