There they are convinced that the broken Russian army is not capable of conducting major ground operations.
The Russians are unable to assemble an offensive group capable of another ground attack from Belarus on Ukraine, but they are only staging a threat in order to bind part of the Ukrainian units there. Also, the Russians are not able to cut the logistics routes from the Western countries, because Ukraine has an overdeveloped network of roads leading to its Western neighbors. This is stated in the conclusions of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for October 20.
Despite the warning of the General Staff that the Russians began to withdraw forces to Belarus for a new attack on Ukraine, in order to cut logistics routes from Western partners, ISW analysts do not believe in such an operation.
“Such a course of action remains unlikely in the coming months, given that Russian forces do not have the ability to even block Ukrainian supply lines from the west through a ground offensive. The nearest Ukrainian east-west railway is 30 km from the Belarusian border, and the Pripyat marshes in northern Ukraine and Belarus make maneuver warfare across the international border in the Volyn and Rivne regions extremely difficult,” the ISW report says.
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In addition, the Institute's analysts believe that the network of road and railway junctions with Poland, Romania and Slovakia is so developed that it is not so easy to disrupt logistics. This could be done if the new offensive group advanced much deeper than during the February-March battle for Kyiv, which involved elite and well-trained Russian units that failed to reach the objective.
Now these forces have greatly degraded
The ISW agrees with the view that said White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. He said that Belarus could form units to hold back Ukrainian forces in northern Ukraine and prevent them from deploying in the area of active operations in southern and eastern Ukraine, according to ISW.
Read also: Russia may try to advance again in the Kharkiv region – Danilov
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Recall that the Belarusian editorial board of “Radio Freedom” reported on Thursday that the military airfield in Zyabrivka near Gomel in Belarus, where transferred by Russian troops, has undergone serious changesover the past month. Like, construction work has intensified there and more Russian equipment and military have arrived.
See special topic: State Department: Out of desperation, the Russian Federation is studying the possibilities of agreements with North KoreaHowever, the fact that Russia is in despair does not make it less dangerous. The Times: Winter is the Kremlin's latest weapon to defeat Ukraine Moscow is targeting the energy sector ahead of winter. More than 1,100 Ukrainian towns and villages were left without electricity and water after the attacks, from Sumy in the north to Lviv in the west and Zaporizhzhia in the south. What is the Kremlin up to? British intelligence assessed the possibilities of a joint grouping of the forces of the Russian Federation and Belarus The Belarusian military, most likely, retains the minimum potential for conducting complex operations. Morning shelling of Kharkiv: The number of victims has increased Oleg Synegubov reported how many civilians of the region were injured during the day due to enemy shelling. RF troops hit Zaporizhzhia with missiles, three wounded The enemy attacked with S300 missiles.
