In particular, the drop in imports should not be considered an unequivocal problem.
The Ukrainian economy has enough potential to overcome the current crisis, but for this it is necessary to change certain trends of economic development, which are evidenced by the September statistical section of the NBU, – notes columnist Ivan Verstyuk in his column for ZN.UA “Is the Ukrainian economy still alive?“. p>
Firstly, the author notes, it is necessary to reverse inflationary trends, because consumer inflation in Ukraine is accelerating (up to 23.8% y/y in August from 22.2% y/y in July). It is quite possible to change this with political decisions in the monetary sphere, communication and stricter regulation of the activities of the corporate sector, including fiscal methods.
Secondly, the Ukrainian labor market is experiencing a deep crisis. Stopping the large-scale outflow of private capital abroad can subsequently lead to an increase in investment activity, which will contribute to the creation of new jobs.
Thirdly, more than half of Advanter surveyed enterprises are operating at or below 60% of pre-war levels. But the surveys traditionally have a large share of retail and, accordingly, import-oriented business. The drop in imports should not be considered a definite problem for the economy, because even then there is a stable and noticeable demand for foreign currency. In the production sector (industry, agriculture), the reduction in business activity is noticeably smaller than in the trade sector, which indicates a change in the structure of the Ukrainian economy itself, where the search for new production opportunities will begin to supplant consumer demand in the long term.
< strong>Fourthly, it is necessary to maintain the emerging trend of reducing the budget deficit – in July-August it decreased even without taking into account grants. Narrowing the state budget deficit is important ahead of the vote on the budget document for 2023, because a certain number of obligations will simply be inherited by the next budget. It would be politically correct to reduce the state budget deficit in proportion to the rate of recovery of economic activity. It was also right to give the Ukrainian economy the opportunity to demonstrate its points of stability and generate impulses for development.
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