According to William Burns, Beijing draws its conclusions by observing the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Experience of Russia in the war against Ukraine affects China's calculations about how and when it might decide to invade Taiwan, CIA Director William Burns said. Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, Burns discussed speculation that Chinese President Xi Jinping may move to seize Taiwan after a key Communist Party meeting later this year, writes The Guardian.
“It seems to us that the risks of this become higher the further this decade goes. I would not underestimate President Xi's determination to establish Chinese control over the self-governing island,” Burns said.
The CIA chief added that China is “restless” watching Russia's war against Ukraine, which Burns described as “strategic failure” of Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the head of the Kremlin planned to overthrow the Ukrainian government within a week.
“We think this probably affects not so much whether the Chinese leadership may choose in a few years to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they will do so,” Burns said.
According to him, China, observing the war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, concluded that “quick, decisive victories cannot be achieved with great force”.
Beijing also probably understood that it should ” control the information space” and “do everything possible to protect your economy from potential sanctions,” Burns believes.
He added that according to preliminary assessments, the United States does not believe that Beijing is offering military assistance to Russia, despite verbal statements of support. Burns said that China has stepped up purchases of Russian energy resources, but is doing so carefully to avoid falling under Western sanctions.
Beijing considers Taiwan part of its territory. Speaking before Burns at the forum, China's ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang, said Beijing still preferred a “peaceful reunification” with the island. But he accused the US of supporting “independence” forces in Taiwan. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen declares that the island is independent.
“The absence of conflict and the absence of war is the biggest consensus between China and the United States,” Qin Gang said. But, according to him, the US is “diluting” its stated policy.
Read also: China threatens the US with “decisive measures” in the event of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan
Earlier, China said that will never tolerate Taiwan's independence and will start a war without hesitation if someone decides to “separate” the island.
The failed “zero COVID-19” strategy and Xi Jinping's political miscalculations regarding the Russo-Ukrainian war, which exacerbated the negative economic impact and complicated relations with the West, have led to discontent within the ranks of the CCP, which could jeopardize the Chinese leader's re-election to a third term. For more details, see Nataliya Butyrska's article “Will Xi Jinping lose power?”.
See special topic: Confrontation between the USA and China China threatens the US with “decisive measures” in case of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan They said that the trip of the Speaker of the House of Representatives “will seriously undermine China's sovereignty and territorial integrity”. The US Treasury Secretary criticized China's economic relations with the Russian Federation Yellen also recalled the global food crisis caused by the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine. The Pentagon will analyze the military interaction between the US and China in recent years – CNN The US is concerned about China's actions in the Indo-Pacific region. The United States will not allow Russia or China to dominate the Middle East – Biden The American president has no intention of weakening the influence of the United States in the region. Blinken and the Chinese Foreign Minister declared their readiness for dialogue After the G20 summit, Blinken personally met with the Chinese Foreign Minister for the first time since last October.
