The Russian military command is likely to give priority to the capture of Severodonetsk, but this does not rule out an attempt to harm the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the eastern part of the Donetsk region.
Plans of the occupiers to capture Kharkiv and encirclement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donetsk to Izyum failed. It is likely that the Russian military leadership will give priority to the capture of the entire Luhansk region, predicts the American Institute for War Studies (ISW).
Russian troops appear to be continuing attempts to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk to cut the last highway connecting the cities to the rest of Ukraine. And instead of a large-scale encirclement of the Defense Forces, the Russians will concentrate their efforts on creating a smaller encirclement of Ukrainian troops.
Due to unsuccessful attempts to force the Seversky Donets in the Kreminna area, the Russian operation to encircle the Armed Forces will move further east, closer to Severodonetsk via Rubizhne. Changes in priorities are largely due to significant losses of military equipment and troops.
Institute for the Study of War ISW
“Russia's forces are likely to run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing the Russian military command to unite soldiers from various elements, including private military organizations and militias, into so-called regular army units and marines,” ISW reported. “The denaturation of elite airborne units with the help of mercenaries is shocking, and this would be the clearest evidence that Russia has exhausted its reserves of combat-ready manpower.”
Based on available information, the American Institute for War Studies concludes that All in all, the military leadership of the Russian Federation will prefer victory in the battle for Severodonetsk, rather than reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk region.
In turn, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports fierce fighting in three directions > in the eastern operational zone.
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