The National Bank emphasizes that these expectations are not forecasts and assessments of the National Bank itself.
Against the background of the war, business expects increased inflation and weakening of the rate of the national currency. This is stated in the business expectations of Ukrainian enterprises published by the National Bank based on the results of the second quarter of 2022.
The survey was conducted in May 2022. A total of 592 enterprises were surveyed in 21 regions of Ukraine (excluding occupied territories and those where active hostilities are taking place). At the same time, the National Bank emphasizes that in connection with the war, the results may not be representative.
It is emphasized that the published results are a reflection of opinion only respondents – managers of Ukrainian enterprises in the II quarter of 2022. These expectations are not forecasts and assessments of the National Bank itself.
According to the received data, in the next 12 months the business of Ukraine expects:
< p style="text-align: justify;">▪ intensification of inflationary processes – an increase in consumer prices by 21.7% (in the previous quarter – 9.5%);
▪ weakening of the national currency – the average value of the exchange rate – UAH 36.06/dollars USA (in the 1st quarter of 2022 – 29.35 UAH/USD).
Read also: Despite the weakness of the hryvnia, the exchange rate will not fall above 40 per dollar – the expert explained why months exceeded the previous 20.0%, and in the second quarter amounted to 58.2%.
Military actions are the main factor that will affect the growth of prices. 93.2% think so.
Production costs and the exchange rate will also have a significant impact on the growth of consumer prices (58.8% and 58.6% of respondents, respectively). only 4.9%)
Expectations are also based on the forecast of a fall in the level of business activity: the business expectations index (BII) is 72.6% (in the previous quarter – 108.2%). The decrease of IDO occurred for all components of the index. Most importantly, for construction works, machines, equipment and inventory.
Also, a reduction in the volume of production of goods and services is expected: the balance of responses is “minus” 48.7% (in the 1st quarter of 2022 – 1.7%).
The expectations of enterprises regarding needs for loan funds in the near future. At the same time, ratings regarding the strictness of the conditions for accessing bank loans increased significantly.
The share of respondents who plan to take bank loans decreased.
Military actions and their consequences are called the dominant factor that will restrain the development of enterprises.
At the same time, the influence of most other factors has weakened, the most – excessive tax pressure, high energy prices and lack of qualified workers.
Read also: Ukraine avoided hyperinflation: the NBU told what will happen to the exchange rate next
Let us remind you that according to experts' forecasts, the dollar will become more expensive. The main reason is the hryvnia issue. That is, the NBU has already “printed” a lot of hryvnias, but, unfortunately, it remains the main source of financing the budget deficit, which has grown critically due to the war. And the issue of the hryvnia automatically lowers the value of the hryvnia in relation to foreign currencies.
The President's Office has also already spoken about the need to revise the official exchange rate.
“It seems to me that the time has come to abolish the fixed exchange rate – we need to switch to the market exchange rate that already exists. What is the point of holding two exchange rates at once? That is, we are now in conditions where the National Bank seems to fixes the exchange rate at 29.25, and on the other hand, there is an exchange rate that we see on the real market, which is in the range of at least 33 to 36 hryvnias for one dollar,” – previously noted the President's adviser on economic issues Oleg Ustenko.
According to unofficial information, an increase in the official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar to UAH 36/dollar is being discussed.
