NBU's version of how gas prices will rise and which products and industries will be hit.
In 2023, Russia's influence on gas prices will begin to decrease, accordingly, world prices will go down, but the opposite trend will be observed in Ukraine. This is stated in the “Inflation Report” of the National Bank of Ukraine for July 2022.
Yes, according to the forecast of the National Bank, natural gas prices at the TTF hub in the Netherlands will increase this year. It is expected that the average annual price in 2022 will be $1,314.5 per 1,000 cubic meters (in January, the NBU predicted $856).
“Natural gas prices in Europe, despite more substantial imports of LNG from the USA, will remain high due to political pressure from Russia,” the document says.
Also, the National Bank of Ukraine increased the forecast of the average price of Brent oil in 2022 from $74 to $104.9 per barrel.
At the same time, high gas prices in the world will have a small impact on general inflation in Ukraine this year.
“Today, the fixing of tariffs for heat and gas for the period of martial law restrains the growth of general inflation – the rates of growth of the cost of these services have slowed down to 1.2% y/y and 9.3% y/y, respectively, reflecting the effects of a high base of comparison,” the NBU notes.
The increase in gas prices this year was primarily reflected in the increase in prices for energy-intensive goods, such as bread, building materials, and glass. The increase in the price of oil is in the increase in the price of fuel and, accordingly, transport services.
However, in the future the situation in Ukraine and in the world will begin to change in opposite directions.
According to the forecast of the NBU, world gas prices will be $1,283.5 in 2023, and $1,007.3 in 2024.
Average Brent oil prices in in 2023, according to expectations, will be at the level of $94.3, in 2024 – $81.4.
But in Ukraine, energy prices will creep up. As the National Bank expects, from about 2024.
“The imbalances accumulated over several years in the energy sector will make it necessary bringing energy tariffs for the population to market levels in post-war times. As in the base scenario, they are expected to increase in several stages starting from the second half of 2024,” the forecast reads.
Also, in the coming years, tariffs for housing will significantly affect inflation.
“The gradual bringing of utility tariffs to the market level in the coming years will keep inflation well above the target. However, given the high social significance of utility tariffs, the tariff increase will likely be gradual and accompanied by the expansion of social support,” the report says.< /p>
Let us remind you that this week the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine introduced a moratorium on the increase of heat tariffs for the population.
