The authorities bet on foreign loans.
About 1, 5 trillion hryvnias. They are betting on foreign loans, expecting that our allies will be able to provide us with almost 1.4 trillion hryvnias, that is, about half of our expenses. This is written by Yulia Samaeva, editor of the economics department of ZN.UA in the article –“State budget-2023: a task for one and a half trillion”.
As of September the amount of international financing received by Ukraine barely reached UAH 540 billion, i.e., in six months we were given only a third of what we plan to receive next year. With the current weakly forecasted and restrained rates of providing us with monetary assistance, it is a disaster to count on more and faster support.
Because if we cannot borrow the entire volume, the simplest and most obvious is to print money. However, the consequences of this step are mostly simple and unpleasant. Currently, the Ministry of Finance has included in the budget the issue of UAH 90.7 billion. It is unlikely that they will be able to withstand these 90 billion, taking into account all of the above. This year, the volume of the issue should exceed UAH 400 billion. And the NBU has already warned everyone that next year we cannot print more than 200 billion, otherwise inflation will be significantly higher than 30%, and the exchange rate of 50 hryvnias to the dollar will seem like a fairy tale. But the biggest risk next year lies precisely in the fact that if we do not receive 1.5 trillion from the West on time, we will be forced to print the hryvnia, driving our economy into an even greater crisis.
Read also: State Budget Expenditures -2023 will double its income
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Other articles by Yulia Samaeva, editor of the economics department of ZN.UA, can be readat the link.
