According to American experts, Russia's war against Ukraine has reached a stalemate, forcing Putin to consider how he could continue it.
The United States and its allies have promised essentially unlimited < strong> support for Ukraine by rearming the Ukrainian army – largely by NATO standards. What will be the next stage of the war? The answer to this question was sought by experts who met on May 12 at the Institute for International Policy Studies, according to Voice of America. Director of the Russian Research Program at the CNA Center for Naval Analysis and a researcher at the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center.
To date, the prospect of war in Ukraine is for Russia, at best, “an expensive draw. Or defeat. I do not think that in the current conditions the Russians have further offensive potential, – continues Michael Coffman. “The course of this war is not sustainable for Russia, and it has become a war of attrition – especially given Ukraine's level of mobilization, access to Western weapons and the quality of logistics.”
A number of experts have suggested for the Kremlin on May 9. It was believed that Putin could reclassify the special operation as an official war , announce a general mobilization. He did not escalate further, although he did not back down. According to Coffman, he “jumped aside” – which reflects the difficulties of Moscow's choice of further scenario of aggression.
“It is unclear whether the Russians will be able to achieve significant success at all, to make a real breakthrough, for example, to encircle Ukrainian forces,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Eurasian Program at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies. – At first, the Russian army did not have a sufficient numerical advantage at the operational and even tactical level for real success. This is the reason for the slow progress. The most obvious solution to this problem – one form of mobilization – is associated with great risks for Putin, and it is unclear whether the mobilization of conscripts and reservists will be militarily effective. “
“General mobilization was a mistake for Russia,” said Michael Coffman. – And that's why the Russian military is not focused on it. This is not the Soviet army for a long time! Currently, the Russian leadership is trying to increase the staffing of battalion tactical groups by offering lucrative short-term contracts (up to four months) with a fairly significant pay to the contractor, probably pushing former recruits to switch to the contract. They are also hunting for new reservists. All these efforts will only exacerbate the problems their army faces on the battlefield. “
In recent years, contractors have been staffed primarily by the Air Force, the Navy, and other relatively “intelligence-intensive” sectors that required lengthy training. Personnel holes in the infantry and logistics were plugged by untrained conscripts or freelance civilians. According to experts, this has led to a failed situation with the rear, logistics and transport. The more than two hundred and fifty thousand conscripts formally available to the Russian army are not suitable for this type of combat. And contractors – in conditions of undeclared war have the right to terminate their contracts.
“In order to mobilize on a larger scale, we need to declare a state of war or change the law, and Putin has done nothing about it,” Coffman said. “This would probably be the most unpleasant and risky decision for him.” In addition to domestic risks, Coffman points to economic ones: even partial mobilization will hit the Russian economy, and Russia will lose at least 10% of GDP in 2022 due to sanctions.
Experiencing a shortage of skilled personnel combined with a general shortage of troops, the Russian army tried to advance on three different fronts at the beginning of the war. “And you can see how this fiasco ended,” Coffman said. – The experience of the Cold War taught Russia something completely different: under that doctrine, the armed forces did not need logistics for a long ground offensive, or logistical resources needed to maintain large areas. The USSR intended to wage war on a fragmented battlefield, maneuvering units with an emphasis on missile defense, air defense, missile strikes on aids. The Russian army did not focus on urban fighting, it did not build a structure to control the territory. There are no options for the sudden transfer of additional forces into the battlefield with a good chance of victory over the Ukrainian military. Russia's armed forces have no further offensive potential, “the expert concluded.
The further course of events “depends on Putin's political choice. The Kremlin is delaying the decision: Russia's political leadership is a master of half-measures, says Michael Coffman. “But they are making their situation worse, and it could be a strategic and catastrophic defeat for Russia.”
Until March 29, before the Istanbul talks , where Ukraine made acceptable compromise proposals to Russia, “Russia had the opportunity to withdraw from the war with some benefits,” said Rob Lee. – Ukraine was open to certain concessions. Putin could go with some of the goals he has achieved, such as Ukraine's neutrality, the postponed issue of Donbass … But Putin did not go for it, which was a political and, unfortunately, not a military decision. “
Time works in Ukraine, Lee said. “The longer the war lasts, the more stable Ukraine will be. The issue is no longer to allow Ukraine to survive, but to help it win. ”
Ukraine is gradually moving towards offensive action. By pushing Russian artillery away from Kharkiv and in general, following the offensive in Luhansk and Donetsk regions, it may try to return Kherson, experts say. The city is located on the west bank of the Dnieper and you can try to force Russian troops to retreat across the river, to hold them back.
However, the Russian army will not melt just like that, analysts say. “A war based on depletion usually favors a party that is tactically defending itself,” Coffman said. The Ukrainians will have to break down Russia's defenses, and under these conditions Russian aircraft can become more efficient, try to establish a local advantage in the air, and provide direct air support. That is why Ukraine is very limited. ” Maybe Kyiv will decide to wait and accumulate more equipment coming from the West, to form reserves. “Success will depend on who can best provide sustainable logistics, ammunition. The rules of the game for Ukraine will change, “Coffman said.
Despite heavy losses in tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, they are quite large, but not yet critical – in aviation, in Russia, analysts say, there are still significant reserves of cruise missiles. “The problem they faced in their application,” says Michael Coffman, “is more related to targeting, intelligence, than the actual characteristics of the missile.”
An increasing threat to Ukraine is the outflow of population, which will exacerbate the decline in production, which, according to various estimates, could reach 30-50% in 2022. The military-economic blockade deprives it of Black Sea ports needed for export. “Russia can carry out this commercial blockade in a number of ways. You don't even need Snake Island for that, Coffman said. – Today you will not find anyone who insures a commercial vessel for the passage to the port of Odessa. This is the reality. It will be difficult for Ukraine to find investors, and it will also suffer from the outflow of talent in the near future. “
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“Ukraine has suffered considerable losses,” Coffman said. – We often focus on Russia's losses and almost never talk about what is happening to Ukrainian troops, partly because we do not have enough data. But the losses on the Ukrainian side were not small either. In general, the balance in the equation is more favorable for Ukraine – at least on the current trajectory of the conflict and to the extent that the West supports it. Russia is not able to continue in the same way, and it will have to make important choices. This will be a real pity for the Russian armed forces, for their reputation in the international arena and within the country. It will take the Russian military many years to recover from it. We do not know whether we are closer to the beginning, in the middle or closer to the end of the war. In fact, the situation could be much worse for the Russian military. So at the moment Ukraine has all the incentives to work, because they have legitimate reasons to prevail, “- concludes Michael Coffman with optimism.
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