As of May, the situation looks under control.
Ukraine has experienced the main shock of entering the state of war, and by the end of the year inflation in Ukraine may exceed 20%, while in April it was already 15.9%, and the situation is now under control. This conclusion can be drawn from the position of the Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine Kirill Shevchenko, which he outlined in a column for NV.
He also stressed that the current figures are incomparable with 2015. .
“In times of war, it is impossible to avoid rising prices. According to the NBU based on web-scraping (the method of collecting prices from online supermarkets), in April inflation was 15.9%, and at the end of the year it may exceed 20%. And such indicators are incomparable with 2015, when in some months inflation reached 60%, “said Kyrylo Shevchenko.
The head of the National Bank stressed that the regulator has extensive experience in combating rising prices. In addition, there are no cases in history when the country went to war with such a highly developed financial system and monetary policy.
Shevchenko announces a gradual resumption of the forecast cycle and the application of the discount rate to reduce inflation to the NBU target of 5%.
“As long as market mechanisms have a limited impact on the market, we will contain price increases by fixing the exchange rate and maintaining some restrictions. But as soon as the monetary transmission channels work and the uncertainty decreases, we will return to the inflation targeting (IT) regime, which once helped to overcome the same inflation of 60%, “he said.
Recall that in 2021 consumer inflation was 10%.
In March 2022, annual consumer inflation accelerated to 13.7% (from 10.7 % in February).
The fall of the real Ukrainian GDP reached 45% in March, the 2022 budget deficit could reach 16-26% of GDP.
