Currently, Russia still receives about 0.57-0.68 billion dollars from around the world. per day, but calculations show that these volumes are declining rapidly.
Information that spreads about recently in the media and social networks about allegedly 1 billion dollars. per day, which the countries of the world (according to another version – the EU) – pay Russia every day for oil and gas, nowhere confirmed by detailed calculations.
Instead of estimating current real volumes and prices oil and gas supplies, as well as their dynamics and forecasts, It can be argued that the EU and the G7 have in fact already begun to impose the most deadly sanctions on Russia's economy – the oil and gas embargo .
At this time of the country Russia pays about 0.57-0.68 billion dollars for oil and gas. per day. But these volumes are declining rapidly every day.
Detailed calculations are as follows:
Нафта :
- Data for 2021 ( Central Bank of the Russian Federation ):
According to statistics from the Central Bank of Russia – oil sales in 2021 amounted to 231.6 million tons per year. The average price for the year was $ 64. per barrel.
In total, Russia received from the sale of oil in 2021 – 111 billion dollars. United States.
- 2022:
For specialist ratings at the end of March, Russia's weekly oil exports fell by 26%. The average price of Russian Urals oil last week ranged from 79 to 82 dollars. per barrel.
So even with the current level of sanctions and unfavorable conditions for oil trade, in 2022 Russia will receive 100-105 billion dollars. revenue (0.27-0.29 billion dollars per day, as of now).
In the future, given the already complete rejection of Russian oil by the United States, Britain, Australia, suspension or reduction of Russian oil purchases by large companies (including Shell TotalEnergies SE), blocking most of the world's ports for Russian cargo – oil sales this year will continue to decline significantly.
Gas :
- Data for 2021:
According to statistics from the Central Bank of Russia, gas sales in 2021 amounted to 204.4 billion cubic meters.
Price on p рородний gas for the year was $ 281.8. for 1000 cubic meters.
Всего РФ received from gas sales in 2021 – 55.5 billion dollars. USA.
- 2022:
The EU has adopted a plan to reduce Russia's gas purchases by two-thirds by the end of 2022, but so far the reductions are insignificant. style = “color: # 050505;”> At the same time, since the beginning of April Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia – refused Russian gas. Therefore, it can be reasonably assumed that this year Russia's exports will be at the level of 2021 – 204.4 billion cubic meters.
Gas price falls last month and now the price of long-term contracts fluctuates at the level of October 2021 (600-700 dollars per 1000 cubic meters).
So even with the current level of sanctions, in 2022 Russia will receive 122-143 billion dollars in revenue (0.3 —0.39 billion dollars per day, at the moment).
In January, Russia, according to Customs Service of the Russian Federation, received from gas exports $ 9.46 billion. This is confirms the above calculations.
Given that the largest buyer is the EU, has already agreed transition plan to other suppliers and energy sources , Russia's revenues from gas from 2023 will be significantly reduced. At the same time, in the coming years, Russia will not be able to replace these losses with other buyers due to logistics.
As a result:
On this At present, the world's countries pay about $ 0.57-0.68 billion for Russian oil and gas. per day and the volume decreases daily.
In 2022, Russia will receive about 222-248 billion dollars. revenues (not profits), of which about half will go to the state budget of the Russian Federation.
However, already in 2023, thanks to EU measures on gas, the refusal of democratic countries from Russian oil and blocking Russian cargo ports in all democracies – Russia will receive only 100-140 billion dollars. per year, which will lead to catastrophic shortfalls in its state budget.
