The problem is that a brutal war risks becoming even more disgusting. The outcome of the Russian war against Ukraine remains uncertain. But there is no doubt that Vladimir Putin's decision to launch a full-scale invasion was the worst of all the strategic decisions made by the leaders of powerful countries in decades.
“There is no scenario in Ukraine in which Putin and Russia are better off than they were before February 24, when the war began,” Ayan Bremmer, an American political scientist and founder of the Eurasia Group, wrote in The Economist.
Putin has cost his country thousands of lives of young soldiers, many of whom have served in the army. He claims that Russians and Ukrainians are supposedly “one people”. But his war only strengthens Ukraine's sense of national identity. Russia is now a fierce enemy for Ukrainians. Putin has shown the world that his army is ineffective. And the millions of dollars spent modernizing the Russian army have simply been wasted. Putin has given NATO a sense of unity and purpose, which it lost decades ago. And Finland and Sweden have good reasons to join the alliance.
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Other allies are sending their troops closer to the Russian border. Meanwhile, Putin has persuaded Europe to abandon imports of Russian oil and gas. He called for sanctions and tough export controls on his country that are hurting generations. In the eyes of Europe and the United States, he crossed the Rubicon. Most importantly, Putin has failed to prepare Russian society for real human, financial, and material losses through his so-called “special operation.” , according to the author, may be related to his personal isolation. It seems that he has not listened to different points of view for a long time.
“How else to explain his belief that his army is able to capture Kyiv in two weeks? (Former European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said Putin often bragged about it to him in 2014). How could Putin think that the Ukrainians would surrender quickly as soon as the invasion began? ”The article reads.
Apparently, Putin expected the West to respond to the invasion of Ukraine no better than when Russia occupied Crimea eight years ago. He did not expect the United States to block much of its foreign exchange reserves so quickly. By suppressing any dissent in Russia, Putin became deaf to important warnings and convinced his entourage that their personal security and well-being depended on loyalty to him and his version of the “truth.”
The author gives one small but very important example. In the first days of the invasion of Ukraine, Putin assured that conscripts “do not participate and will not participate” in the war. It quickly became clear that this was not true. There are three possible explanations for this. And each of them harms the autocrat of Russia. The first is that Putin lied to the Russian people about something he still could not hide. The second explanation is that the Russian generals lied to him. And the third and probably most likely – misinformation permeates the Russian army at every level. And high-ranking officers now do not know exactly what is happening at the lower levels of command. But for whatever reason, they all destroy trust in Putin, both at home and abroad, and undermine the effectiveness of the Russian military for many years to come.
There is no reason to believe that Russia's failure in the “first phase” of the war, when it tried to capture Kyiv, would lead to a sharp improvement in the flow of information in the command structure. Incentive structures remain too distorted. And if Russia's army fails to provide accurate information about what is happening on the battlefield or about the resources needed to achieve the goals, and if Putin and his generals continue to believe in their fantasies of “achievable” goals, the next phase of the war will be nothing. better for Moscow than the previous one. Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbass are hardened in battles that lasted 8 years. Underestimating the skills and motivation of Ukrainians, as well as the willingness of Western governments to supply them with weapons, has cost Putin dearly. For a Russian autocrat, the price of military defeat can hardly be higher. If his appeal to national pride and promises to end the fictional “genocide of Russian-speakers” in the Donbas fail, the Russian autocrat may well dare to take a step he would like to avoid. He can use chemical weapons to turn the tide of war. He has nothing more to lose.
Read also: The war in Ukraine is changing NATO's approaches and strategies towards Russia – former NATO commander
Russia has already faced a transatlantic political and military alliance that has imposed the harshest sanctions on it. Western governments continue to support Ukraine, accuse Moscow of war crimes and genocide, and treat Putin like a pariah. The approach of scorched earth can and will give him some limited military victory. And he knows that the West has already done everything it can with him. It remains only to ban the import of Russian gas and oil. But it will happen very soon.
Western hopes that Russian generals and security services, oligarchs or the people will remove Putin from power are likely to be dashed. Cloudy oil prices will help the Russian economy stay afloat for some time, despite the long-term damage to the Russian economy caused by sanctions. Given the political climate, it is impossible to know what the Russian people really think. But there are no indications that the Putin regime is in danger. Russians see the picture of war that their government wants them to see. They are constantly fed fables about “Ukrainian atrocities”, Western plans to humiliate Russia and the willingness of their autocrat and soldiers to defend their homeland. Simply put, Putin, Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, and Western leaders should not expect any clear victory that each of them dreams of. Instead, a disgusting war could become even more disgusting.
Earlier, the United States said it would respond if Russia uses chemical weapons in Ukraine .
Please read carefully with an explanation from the Ministry of Environment on what to do in case of chemical hazards .
See special topic: In the temporarily occupied territories of Kharkiv region, the invaders are establishing their mobile communication and introducing rubles – GUR of the Ministry of Defense Russian servicemen and FSB officers are trying to demoralize the local population. The enemy continues to drop bombs on Mariupol every 3 minutes – Deputy Commander of the Azov Regiment Svyatoslav Palamar once again appealed to the world. Zelensky called Erdogan ahead of talks with Putin Erdogan expressed support for the Ukrainian president. Chairman of the OBA: As a result of the shelling in Luhansk region, 46 settlements were left without gas, 38 – without electricity Residents of Severodonetsk are without electricity and water for the second day. More than 80% of wounded Ukrainian servicemen recover and return to service – Ministry of Defense Military medicine in Ukraine – at a very high level, the ministry said.
