The failure of the war against Ukraine destroys Moscow's last argument as to why it should be considered a global player, but even so, Putin remains very dangerous.
The strength of the modern Russian army was to show the world that Vladimir Putin rebuilt the greatness of the country after the humiliating collapse of the Soviet Union. Instead, weak progress and heavy losses in the war against Ukraine have exposed Russia's deep shortcomings.
For those threatened by Putin's aggression, the failure of the Russian military is a relief. Unfortunately, the nuclear state now has something to prove to everyone, writes The Economist.
So far, the invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster for the Russian army. About 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in two months of fighting, according to the British government. At least 1,600 armored vehicles were destroyed, as were dozens of aircraft. The Black Sea Fleet also lost its flagship. The attempt to attack Kyiv turned out to be a chaotic failure. Leo Trotsky once wrote that the army is “a copy of society and suffers from all its diseases, but usually with a higher temperature.” The battles in the south and east of Ukraine in the next few weeks will not only determine the course of the war, but also whether the Russian army will be able to maintain its reputation, as well as the reputation of the society it has become.
Analysts at The Economist have estimated how “rotten” the Russian army is. Russia's defense budget is more than $ 250 billion. This is three times more than in the UK or France. But much of this money is wasted or stolen. Putin and his top commanders have kept secret their plans to invade senior officers. This speaks of great mistrust between them. Dissatisfied soldiers, who were fed expired rations, deserted, leaving the equipment. Others tortured, raped, and killed civilians to reward the Kremlin. Russia has failed to gain control of the skies or combine the strength of its air force with tanks, artillery and infantry. Corrupt, uninitiated, and incapable of learning from their own mistakes, the generals rejected advanced military doctrines, leading to the destruction of cities and the terrorization of civilians.
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Highly motivated Ukrainian troops are a reproach to these Russian failures. There are fewer Ukrainian servicemen and less equipment at their disposal. But they are quick to make decisions using real-time intelligence. The Russian campaign is now led by one commander. And the Russian army was able to move forward a little in the Donbass. But all these achievements are due solely to the large mass of Russian troops. Russia's claims to be called a developed modern force are as convincing as the cannon of a tank that has remained rusty in the Ukrainian field.
For Putin, this is a crushing defeat. This is partly due to the fact that although he controls the propaganda machine that helped him suppress all critics, the loss of his face threatens his position at home. This is due to the fact that the use of military force plays a central role in his strategy to make the world reckon with Moscow.
Russia may be big, but it is still a medium-sized power that still aspires to become a superpower. In terms of population, it is ranked between Bangladesh and Mexico. Its economy is somewhere between Brazil and South Korea. And the size of its global exports – between Taiwan and Switzerland. Despite the fact that Russia enjoys some sympathy in countries such as South Africa or India, its soft power is declining. This process has been accelerated by obvious incompetence and brutality in Ukraine.
To fill the gap between his real strength and his dreams, Putin constantly turned to the only area where Russia could claim world leadership: military power. In the last 14 years, he has invaded Georgia, twice invaded Ukraine, and intervened in the war in Syria. Russia has sent mercenaries to Libya, the CAR, Sudan, and now Ukraine. Putin is a global hooligan obsessed with his country's inconsistencies. This is in stark contrast to China, which also has big ambitions. However, Beijing has been able to achieve results through its economy and diplomacy.
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Humiliation in Ukraine destroys Russia's latest claim to superpower status. The war may drag on for a long time. And as long as it continues, Russia will not be able to conduct large-scale operations elsewhere. Equipment, ammunition and manpower are quickly depleted. It will take years to restore the Russian army to full strength, as well as to train personnel to correct all the mistakes made in Ukraine. No one will lift sanctions while Putin is in power. Therefore, the task of restoring the combat capability of the Russian army will take even longer. Russian missiles depend on Western details. The outflow of talented and world-oriented Russians will create problems for the economy. At this time, the less Russia is able to project a military force, the less it will be able to undermine the stability of the world.
And it will be great. However, the invasion of Ukraine also offers less pleasant lessons. On the one hand, it has shown that, in pursuing his strategy, Putin is willing to take risks that many others, including many Russians, find absurd. An even greater reduction in Russian power could lead to even more irresponsible aggression. Events in Ukraine also show that in future wars, if the Russian army fails to win on the battlefield, it will resort to atrocities. A weaker Russian army could become even more brutal. For those in the world who are potentially threatened by Russian aggression, this is a terrible prospect.
So weakness can lead Russia to the last arena, where it is still the undisputed superpower. These are chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. Since the beginning of the war against Ukraine, Putin and his government have repeatedly threatened to use weapons of mass destruction. If Putin really wants his regime to survive, he will refrain from carrying out these threats. However, the fewer the usual capabilities of the Russian army, the greater the temptation to nuclear escalation. The signal to the whole world is that Putin's military opportunism in Ukraine has failed because of his own officers and strategists, who may further restrain his next stubborn aggressive schemes. If the situation in Donbass comes to a standstill, it will only lay the groundwork for a new attack, which may be even more threatening than today.
Even if Putin loses, he will remain dangerous. That is why NATO needs to rebuild its defenses. It is better to have a large contingent of forces on the front line so that Russia understands that it will be difficult for it to defeat these forces from the very beginning. The best defense against Putin and his rotten army is to persuade him not to fight at all.
done and what else needs to be done to keep it afloat A Russian helicopter fired unguided missiles at the Sumy region An intensified curfew will be imposed in Odessa It will apply only to the city. Major Volyn: There are about 60 children in Azovstal. The youngest is 4 months old – video The military appealed to world leaders to help the Azovstal humanitarian corridor Murders, wounds, abductions: 243 occupiers' crimes against Ukrainians recorded journalists In addition, 11 cases of shelling by Russian invaders of TV towers were recorded.
