Ukrainians and world democracies must work to achieve a single acceptable end to the war.
The war in Ukraine has reached a turning point. Russian troops invading the country from the north, south and east are now barely moving. They fired on schools, hospitals, houses, and a theater where children were hiding . But they do not yet control even the places they have occupied.
And no wonder. Few Ukrainians want to become a collaborator of the occupiers. More than 90% of them are convinced that they will defeat the enemy. The Ukrainian army refuses to surrender even in those cities that have been hit hard by the bombings, writes the journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner Anne Applebaum on The Atlantic.
Russia expected that the whole war, the whole conquest of Ukraine would last no more than six weeks. More than half of that time has passed. There must be an end, a moment when the war will stop. Ukrainians and the democratic forces that support Ukraine must work together to achieve this goal.
“This should not be a truce, a decision to support a certain Ukrainian resistance for the next 10 years, a promise to” get all the blood out of Russia “or anything else that will allow instability and fighting to continue. The goal should be the Ukrainian victory, “Applebaum said.
And before you achieve anything, you need to imagine what it will look like. And it is not difficult to imagine victory in this war. Ukraine remains a sovereign democracy with the right to choose its leaders and conclude the agreements it wants. There will be no pro-Russian puppet regime in Kiev, no need for long-term Ukrainian resistance, no further fighting. The Russian army must retreat beyond its borders. It is possible that the line of these borders will change somehow, or maybe Ukraine promises to adhere to neutrality. But all this must be decided by the Ukrainians themselves, not by external forces. International peacekeepers may be needed. Whatever happens, Ukraine must have good reason to believe that Russian troops will not return soon.
Also imagine the consequences of victory. In Washington, most people have long believed that Ukraine is involved in a regional conflict. And that it belongs to the territory that worries Russians more than Americans. And so it seems to always be. But this is not the case at all. Ukrainians, especially their president, Vladimir Zelensky, have taken their struggle globally, arguing that it is a battle for a set of universal ideals: democracy, yes, but also a form of civic nationalism based on patriotism and respect for the rule of law. For a peaceful Europe in which disputes are resolved through institutions, not brute force. For resisting the dictatorship. Zelensky urged Americans to remember Pearl Harbor. He addressed the German parliament using the words “never again” – a mantra that usually means that the new Hitler will not be allowed to appear. And he told German deputies that against the background of the brutal war in his country, these words have now “lost their meaning.” He called on the European Parliament to prove that you are truly Europeans and to accept Ukraine into the EU.
Such rhetoric is effective because it touches on principles that unite most Europeans, Americans, and many other nations around the world, reminding them of how much worse the world has been in the bloody past. And how worse it may be in the future if these principles lose their meaning. The words used by Zelensky also provoke a reaction, because they are true. Ukraine's victory will be the victory of all believers in democracy and the rule of law. Citizens of democracies and members of the democratic opposition in Russia, Cuba, Belarus and Hong Kong will feel the power of it. “Their battle is our battle,” Applebaum, a Venezuelan friend, said of the war in Ukraine. Institutions guarding the states that have embodied these ideas, in particular NATO and the EU, will also be strengthened by Ukraine's victory.
Zelensky's words provoke an even greater reaction, because the Russians also attach great importance to the conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has announced that this war will change global politics. This is not about Ukraine, but about the world order. The current crisis is a fateful, epoch-making moment in modern history. It reflects the battle for what the world order will look like, ”he said.
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After World War II, Joseph Stalin declared that “everyone imposes his system as far as his army can reach.” Similarly, Vladimir Putin decided that the Russian army would impose an autocratic, kleptocratic political system in Ukraine. Already, the Russian occupation of western Ukrainian cities is reminiscent of the Soviet occupation of Central Europe after World War II. Government officials and public leaders – mayors and police officers, as well as deputies, journalists, museum curators – were arrested. And no one has seen them since. Civilians are constantly being terrorized. In Mariupol, local authorities report that people are being forcibly deported to Russia, as Soviet special services once did with Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, and Estonians after the 1939 and 1945 invasions. If Russia wins, this tactic will be used throughout Ukraine, creating mass terror, mass violence and instability for many years. So, if the world comes to terms with the consequences, autocrats from Minsk to Caracas and Beijing will notice.
Because the stakes are so high, the next few weeks will be extremely dangerous. Putin will do everything possible to create fear. In his extraordinary speech last week, he described critics of the Russian war as “swindlers”, “traitors” and “pests”. And it was done out of fear. Putin said that the Russians needed “self-cleansing,” which reminded them of Stalin's purges. He deliberately refers to the bloodiest and worst era in Soviet history to avoid even hints of opposition at home.
“He has just rejected 30 years of economic achievements, 30 years of Russian integration with the outside world, 30 years of investment to bring back the era of his youth, an era that most Russians no longer remember, and some would even like to revive. Putin seems to believe that only heightened fears will prevent people from protesting once they understand what has happened to their country. Maybe he's right, “the article reads.
Putin and his propagandists hint at the use of chemical and nuclear weapons for the same reasons. They want external forces, especially the United States, to fear the consequences of aiding Ukraine. The use of hypersonic weapons, the threat of nuclear war on Russian television, and even the new habit of using nuclear weapons during military exercises, mimicking the attack on Warsaw, all have a purpose. The same can be said about an amazing anti-Polish article written by Dmitry Medvedev. He accused Poland of “ingratitude” for the fact that the Red Army expelled troops from its territory and then established a new bloody occupation. Among other things, Medvedev hinted that Poland could be next today. The recent strike on a military base near the Polish border was also a hint.
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“How should the West respond? There is one rule: we must not be afraid. Russia wants us to be afraid, so much so that fear depresses us and makes us incapable of making decisions. That we all retreat together, allowing Russia to conquer Ukraine, and then Poland or other European countries, “Applebaum writes.
Putin remembers very well the era when the Soviet army controlled the eastern part of Germany. But the threat to all European countries will not be reduced if Russia is allowed to massacre Ukraine. It will only increase. Instead of fear, focus on Ukraine's victory.
“Only we will understand that this is our goal, then we will be able to start thinking about how to achieve it. Either by temporarily boycotting Russian gas, oil and coal, or by holding military exercises in another part of the world to distract Russian troops, or perhaps by organizing humanitarian air corridors, as in Berlin in 1948, or providing Ukraine with better weapons. ” the article says.
The exact tactics will be determined by those who have a better understanding of diplomacy and military strategy. But the strategy must be clear. A month ago, no one believed that this war would be so important. Therefore, every step taken by the West must have a single goal: how will it help Ukraine win? “This is not our war,” one could say three weeks ago. But no more.
See special topic: Ex-commander of NATO forces in Europe suggests that Putin may use nuclear weapons in Poland But he doubts that Russia will use chemical weapons in Ukraine. In the Donetsk region, the occupiers killed two more children , including an 11-year-old girl. Ukraine unites the world – the Green President believes that Ukraine is now defending the world. Russian media has made a sensational statement – Putin must leave Ukraine “Medusa” believes that Putin hates Ukrainians, and considers Russians people who can not do without a leader. Abroskin – to the occupiers: “Let the children be taken out of Mariupol, I offer myself in return” The officer is ready to surrender if he is allowed into the city for three days to save the children.
