Production is expected to fall by 10% in the second quarter.
Oil production in Russia may fall in the second quarter by 10% due to sanctions – up to 9.9 million barrels per day. The Russian mass media write about it with reference to their experts.
“We expect Russia's oil production to fall by 10% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2022 to 9.9 million barrels per day (from 11 million barrels per day in March). then for the fourth quarter of 2022, our estimate increases by 5%. There is a risk that this forecast is overly optimistic, “- predicts stock market expert” BCS World of Investment “Eugene Mironyuk.
However, the expert stressed that accurate the forecast cannot be given due to extreme uncertainty about sanctions, including the likelihood of secondary sanctions against Russian oil buyers.
Russian media believe that the EU can set a ceiling on Russian oil prices to limit Russia's revenues.
“These countries are potentially the main buyers of Russian oil in the event of a radical refusal to buy Russian oil in Europe. However, it is unlikely that the implementation of large-scale secondary sanctions is possible,” – said the expert.
According to him, regarding the risks to Russian supplies under the embargo, finding new markets for Russia is a matter of time. At this time, discounts on Russian Urals oil for Brent may reach record highs.
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Earlier it was reported that The European Commission's plan to cut off Russian gas supplies contains energy savings and a commitment to share resources with each other.
Bloomberg, citing the EU's draft external energy strategy, said that span> The European Union plans to step up cooperation with African countries to reduce its dependence on Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.
Poland prepares proposals for the introduction of a tax on Russian energy in the EU. This will speed up the process of reducing dependence on the Russian Federation.
