Oil and gas account for about half of Russia's exports, and revenues could be record highs.
Bloomberg estimated Russia's oil and gas revenues in 2022 at $ 321 billion, a third more than in 2021. This was reported on the agency's website.
“Putin could receive $ 321 billion if oil and gas trade continues,” the agency warns.
Bloomberg notes that oil and gas account for about half of Russia's exports.
“Russia's economy has swelled during the first full month of the war with Ukraine, but it could still rise with a brilliant balance if some of its largest trading partners do not turn off the tap on energy exports,” the statement said.
The staff of the Washington Institute of International Finance (IIF) came to similar conclusions.
“Russia's biggest driver of the current account surplus remains strong. If the current sanctions are maintained, a significant inflow of hard currency into Russia will continue, ”Bloomberg quoted the organization as saying.
IIF expects that Russia's current account surplus in 2022 could reach a record $ 240 billion.
This forecast is supported by one of the world's largest investment banks Goldman Sachs. According to the agency, the balance in Russia this year will be $ 205 billion, which could allow the Central Bank to meet private sector demand for foreign currency and, finally, to weaken control over capital movements.
In addition, analysts at TS Lombard predict that the combination of a sharp devaluation of the ruble and rising oil prices will bring an additional 8.5 trillion to the Russian budget. rubles ($ 103 billion). A “healthy balance” will help the government support government spending in the absence of access to international capital markets, although it will not save Russia from a “deep recession,” experts said.
