The sharp rise in military spending and the declining economy are already forcing the Russian budget to burst at the seams.
Although the EU has not yet managed to agree on an embargo on Russian oil, Russia's budget, which suffers from Western sanctions and the war in Ukraine, has already formed a multi-billion “hole”, which by the end of the year will reach, according to various estimates, from 1.6 to 2, 7 trillion rubles. This was reported by The Moscow Times.
“Although the treasury continues to receive raw material inflows of more than a trillion rubles a month, and the EU oil embargo remains an unrealized plan, the sharp rise in military spending and the falling economy are already forcing the budget to burst,” the newspaper said. p>
In April, the RF Ministry of Finance recorded the first deficit this year: budget revenues were lower than expenditures by 262.3 billion rubles.
At the same time, experts call the figure even higher. Thus, Radkombank analyst Mikhail Vasiliev claims that in April the treasury's revenues were less than 350 billion rubles.
But even if you believe the figures of the Russian government, according to According to the Minister of Finance, by the end of the year the costs will exceed revenues by 1.6 trillion rubles.
However, experts have a different opinion. According to Farid Iskhakov, an analyst at Otkrytie Research, taking into account anti-crisis costs, the treasury deficit could reach 2.7 trillion rubles by the end of the year.
Moreover, anti-crisis costs can actually reach 4 trillion rubles. In particular, the Russian government should index the pensions and salaries of state employees against the background of record inflation for 20 years. In addition, up to 2 trillion rubles, according to experts, will have to pour into state-owned banks, which are projected to face losses of 5.8 trillion rubles.
Read also : Possible default of Russia: the United States will block the Kremlin's payments on public debt – Bloomberg
Thus, the Russian budget, which consists of 38% of oil and gas revenues, is already experiencing “pain” from sanctions. Although Russian oil exports even rose in April, they had to pay for it with unprecedented discounts in excess of $ 35 a barrel.
-annual highs to the dollar and almost 5-year highs to the euro. In April, the budget missed 133 billion rubles on the plan, and since the beginning of the war – 435 billion, the Ministry of Finance reported in early May
The war with Ukraine, which lasts for the third month (The Moscow Times uses the term “war”, not “special operation”, contrary to criminal liability for the use of illegal definitions in Russia , – ed) burns money of Russian taxpayers at a rate of almost a billion rubles per hour. This follows from the official data of the Ministry of Finance, published on Tuesday.
On average, the military machine “ate” 21 billion rubles a day – an amount comparable to the annual budget of regions such as Kalmykia or the Jewish Autonomous Region.
” The war is getting more expensive as the Russian army's offensive is stalling, losses are multiplying, and plans for a lightning blitzkrieg have to be scrapped, “according to the Russian Finance Ministry.
In January-April, the budget spent 1.681 trillion rubles on military articles, three times more than on education (517 billion rubles) and health care (615 billion rubles) and 10 times more than on environmental protection (167 billion rubles). ).
According to the results of the year, the “hole” in the treasury will be equal to two annual budgets of the Moscow region (820 billion rubles), almost seven annual budgets of the Nizhny Novgorod region (239 billion rubles) ) and almost 60 annual budgets of regions such as Kalmykia or the Altai Republic.
“The difference will be financed from transitional balances, internal reserves, including reserve funds”, – said Finance Minister Siluanov in late April.
In addition, part of the additional expenditures will be financed by reallocating funds within budget items.
In the old days, the Ministry of Finance could close the debt deficit. But now it is becoming more expensive: to borrow for 10 years through federal bonds will have to pay 10.2% per annum – almost twice as much as in 2020.
