The failure in the south of Ukraine and the unity of Kyiv's western partners may force the Russian president to negotiate.
Vladimir Putin may offer the Ukrainian authorities peace talks around November. This will be possible if the Armed Forces of Ukraine gain a strategic advantage in the Kherson region. This is the opinion of the British expert on Ukraine Timothy Ash.
In the author's column on NV.ua, he suggested that if the Russian president wants to maintain at least some influence on NATO, he will have to negotiate both with the West and with Ukraine. It is likely that this could happen before winter, since Russia's military potential has been significantly depleted and the offensive has slowed down. According to Ash, a lot will depend on the battle for Kherson.
“The most likely scenario is that the battle for Kherson will be over within the next few months, and then, after the first attempt in the autumn to bend Europe on the energy issue, Putin will offer some kind of peace – roughly – in November. The ball will be on Ukraine's side – whether to agree to a bad peace again (as was the case with “Minsk-1” or “Minsk-2″) – or to continue the struggle. I have a feeling that this time around Ukraine there is much more unity and determination to fight until much more territory is returned – the south, Zaporizhzhia and the ports in the Kherson region are key. This is something that can provide Ukraine with the strengthening of peace,” the expert writes.
Ash emphasized that compared to the conditions under which Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 were signed, the new agreements will be concluded either on terms of equality or in favor of the Ukrainian side. First of all, this is due to the fact that the military power of both sides is now significantly different from what it was in 2014. With the support of the West, Ukraine received the necessary weapons and has an advantage in “general military dynamics”.
Read also: There will be no quick victory: an American diplomat predicted how long the war in Ukraine will last
Previously, the British Defense Minister told what mistake Putin made when he invaded Ukraine.
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