Russia has drawn some dangerous conclusions from the West's passivity in the past, and something needs to be done to avoid an even greater tragedy in Ukraine.
No matter how shocking the invasion was Russia to Ukraine, no one can say that it happened without warning. For months, troops were drawn to the border. And long before that, Russia was sending clear signals. This happened not only in eastern Ukraine, but also in Crimea, Georgia, and especially in Syria, where Russian actions remain unpunished and have caused only indifference.
Politico writes about this, adding that today the global community has revived in support of Ukraine. The formidable wave of Western sanctions has put significant pressure on the Russian economy. Billions of dollars in advanced Western weapons have been sent to strengthen Ukraine's defenses. Having lost thousands of soldiers, as well as more than 550 tanks, more than 1,100 armored vehicles and at least 110 aircraft, Russia's initial targets were completely shattered. Russia has not faced such a wall of resistance since the Cold War.
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The United States and its Western allies are to be commended. But it is also worth acknowledging that Russia felt it had a right to invade. And that this invasion led to the resettlement of 11 million civilians, cost the lives of thousands of people and turned large parts of Ukraine into ruins. For many years, the international community's response to Russian aggression has been, to put it mildly, weak.
“The path to Russia's invasion of Ukraine was largely paved by our own inaction,” the article reads.
The war is far from over. And Vladimir Putin's ambitions are still unscathed. As the West seeks to deter Russia and stop its offensive, it must learn to understand the signals that Russia is already sending. And to draw useful conclusions from her bloody seven-year intervention in the war in Syria.
This is not the whole war
Bloodshed in Ukraine is now entering a new phase. The Ukrainian army with the support of the West was able to win in the first round. But it's not time to relax. Everything the world has seen so far could only be the first volley of a long war in which the Kremlin can still win. Syria shows how much Russia is able to adapt and play a long game.
Like the recent attempt at a rapid breakthrough in Ukraine, the first phase of Russia's military intervention in Syria has faced major obstacles. Under the command of General Alexander Dvornikov, Russian forces first launched airstrikes on Syrian opposition forces, which threatened the very survival of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Carrying out massive bombings, the Kremlin hoped that the Syrian dictator's army would quickly change the situation on the battlefield. But this did not happen. The regime's ground forces in Syria have been unable to launch an offensive even with the support of Russian aircraft. In the end, the Syrian conflict with many fronts proved unbearable. That's why Russia had to adapt.
Dvornikov, who currently commands Russian troops in Ukraine, is known by the nickname “Syrian Butcher.” He belongs to the “old guard”, prone to brutal tactics that are more in line with the Middle Ages than the 21st century. However, despite all the chaotic bombings and sieges, Dvornikov proved resilient and able to adapt.
One manifestation of this adaptation was the search for additional allied forces on earth in addition to the corrupt and incompetent Syrian army. Shortly after the invasion began, Russia began sending small special forces units. They did not cooperate mainly with Syrian forces, but with Lebanese Hezbollah, which gained a good reputation in the early years of the Syrian war. When Russian Special Forces fighters were withdrawn from Syria, some of them wore tattoos with Shiite icons in memory of Hezbollah's Blood Brothers. Over time, Russia began restructuring the Syrian army, forcing local ministers to change staff and create completely new units. Russian mercenaries also appeared on the battlefield. In addition, Syrian troops were sent to Russia, where they received special training.
Russia knows that the West may lose attention
In the case of the Syrian war, it is important to remember that the West has turned its attention to Islamic State terrorists, tired of the conflict between the regime and the opposition. In addition, he was mistaken in believing that the Syrian adventure would soon become a “swamp” for Russia. And this gave Moscow new opportunities in 2016-2017.
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As Russian planes bombed civilians, Russian diplomats began using UN terminology, including rhetoric about “de-escalation.” Russia's unexpected and steady promotion of “de-escalation” has become the greatest tool for dividing Syria into so-called “de-escalation zones” by the efforts of the international community. For the world, the prospect of a lull after many years of bloody chaos, as well as the promise of a guaranteed flow of humanitarian aid to regions devastated by the intense conflict, seemed attractive. Therefore, Russia's proposal to divide Syria was accepted with joy. The fact is that the United States has even directly negotiated the creation of one such zone in southern Syria. Although everyone knew that this would require forcing their Syrian partners to give up territory to Assad.
And then the inevitable happened, as both Syrians and analysts said. The idea of creating de-escalation zones was a forgery. It allowed the Syrian regime, together with its Russian and Iranian allies, to seize such areas of de-escalation one by one. Three of the four zones came under siege, they were fired upon, turning into ruins. And then in 2018 they all surrendered. In southern Syria, where Washington was the “guarantor” of the de-escalation agreement, American forces forced their local allies to surrender. The fourth de-escalation zone in Idlib still exists, but only thanks to the powerful military efforts of Turkey, which protected it from Assad's attacks.
The publication writes that due to low capacity and inattention, the international community has agreed to all Russian “truces”, humanitarian “windows” and “corridors”, localized processes of “reconciliation”, as well as all diplomatic initiatives such as the UN-backed Constitutional Committee. . These were just Russian tricks designed to simply gain time to divide and conquer.
Russia has also been included in the UN mechanisms, through which it has obtained the exact coordinates of dozens of hospitals in Syria under opposition control. The Russian military used this data to destroy these hospitals and pediatric clinics one by one. The UN eventually had to launch an investigation into all the bombings. But Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has come under constant Russian influence, postponing the investigation. In the end, the conclusions about Russia's involvement in the bombing of hospitals did not mention it.
Putin knows that the West avoids risks
So, despite all the above, Russia has not faced any consequences. No sanctions have been imposed.
“Apart from this impunity, there are two other related lessons to be learned: condemnation does not force Russia to make concessions, and the belief in impunity feeds its thirst for even greater aggression,” the article said.Nothing exposes Russia's geopolitical complicity in crimes in Syria as the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime. At least 340 chemical attacks have been carried out since 2012. When at least 1,400 civilians were killed in Eastern Guta, it was Russian diplomats who became the “doves of peace” who persuaded President Barack Obama not to punish anyone. The proposal to collect and destroy the entire Syrian chemical arsenal was only a blunt distraction. And the Obama administration bought into this trick.
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In subsequent years, the Assad regime carried out 300 chemical attacks, including sarin. And Obama later said he was “very proud” of his decision not to strike Syria after the use of chemical weapons in Eastern Guta in 2013. And that says a lot about how detached his thinking is from reality. It is worth noting that Russia has drawn conclusions from these episodes. She now believes that the West's desire to avoid risks beats any need to protect basic norms.
What does all this mean for Ukraine?
After all, Russia is well aware of the West's low bandwidth, short attention span, and risk aversion. Given the relative success of US and European policies in support of Ukraine, widespread self-confidence and talk of “victory” may gradually escalate into negligence and inattention. In fact, the war continues near the borders of Russia, not America. Moscow is playing a long-term game, not Washington. Because the war against Ukraine began 8 years ago, not in February 2022. Will the politicians in Washington be as focused on Ukraine and all the smallest events on the front in 6 months as they are today? Hardly.
Russian adaptation in Ukraine can potentially take many forms. And they are difficult to predict. The Kremlin is likely to send large contingents of the Russian army or even recruit foreign mercenaries.
“But more importantly, Russia will try to freeze non-urgent fronts in order to concentrate resources in places of the highest priority. Moscow may stir up conflict in unexpected places, such as Transnistria, to divert attention and create new uncertainty. If Ukraine hastily defends itself and even inflicts heavy losses on Russia, Moscow will start talking about local ceasefire regimes. But they will be broken, filled with propaganda and ambiguity, used to gain time for regrouping, and then as an excuse for a new escalation, “the article reads.
If Russia is able to consolidate and expand control over Donbass, its ability to invest in an offensive campaign on one front line will greatly increase. No matter how attractive Moscow's future calls for de-escalation may be, the West must be very attentive to Russia's true intentions and not repeat the mistakes made in Syria. Given that the war will continue for several more months, if not less years, the United States and Europe need to speak clearly and publicly about their goals in Ukraine. Ambiguity benefits Russia, not Ukraine.
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By moving to a more methodical campaign on a smaller scale, mixed with “ceasefires” and operational pauses, Russia will only be able to improve its own ability to prolong the war. In turn, the West will come under pressure due to the need to support an extremely expensive and resource-intensive program to support Ukraine. In just two months, the United States has spent 33% of its Javelin missile stockpile and 25% of its Stinger missile stockpile. It will take years without a strong increase in federal investment in arms production to replenish all that has been transferred to Ukraine. And in times of competition between the great powers, this is a very unfavorable position.
The United States must also recognize that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is part of an era of impunity that has resulted in years of impunity for authoritarianism and criminal aggression. Drawing red lines and strengthening global norms requires decisive action, a willingness to take risks and long-term coherence. Today, everything depends on Ukraine. For Putin, whose position at home is much better than usual in Washington or London, continuing the current course is the only option.
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