How can an autocrat leave the Kremlin.
Disastrous military adventure of Russian President Vladimir Putin against Ukraine raised the possibility that his 22-year reign could be coming to an end. But will he leave power himself, or will he have to be pushed? During the seven months of the war of aggression against Ukraine, the Russian army suffered huge losses in personnel and equipment, and began to partially retreat in the east. Putin's order on partial mobilizationturned into chaos in the country, which drew reproach even from his Kremlin propagandists and political allies.
The 69-year-old autocrat came to power in 2000, replacing Boris Yeltsin. The chances that Putin will leave office in the near future are still small, but it is clear that the escalation of the consequences of the failed military adventure is already weakening the grip of power of the head of the Kremlin.
Politico predicts scenarios under which Putin's rule may end and analyzes candidates to replace the current head of the Kremlin.
Scenario under which Putin can choose his successor
Putin has made great efforts to remove rivals and rewrite the constitution to hold on to power. The probability that he will voluntarily give way to a new leader is small, but not insignificant. This is who the current head of the Kremlin can give his power to.
Read also: Putin's regime will fall, but what will happen next? — The Guardian
“Super spy” Nikolai Patrushev
If Putin admits that his stay in power is no longer possible, Kremlin observers they see Patrushev as his most likely successor. The former head of the intelligence agency of the FSB, and now the secretary of the Security Council of Russia, has the advantage of sharing with Putin a worldview permeated with hostility towards the West in general and the United States in particular.
In any case, Patrushev's views are more extreme: at a Security Council meeting a few days before Putin ordered troops into Ukraine in February, Patrushev accused Washington of pursuing an ulterior motive aimed at the “collapse of the Russian Federation.” This is familiar rhetoric: many years ago, Patrushev accused former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright of saying that Siberia and the Far East should not belong to Russia. This claim had no factual basis, so there were speculations that the Russian Federation organized a top-secret project where Russian spies gained access to the thoughts of Western leaders.
Since Putin spends most of his time in the Russian Federation, Patrushev took on a more active role role, having recently visited China amid growing concern over the war there. However, age is not on Patrushev's side: at the age of 71, he is two years older than Putin, and if Patrushev becomes president, he will most likely be only a temporary figure.
“Servant” < /strong>Dmitry Medvedev
If there's anyone Putin can trust, it's Dmitri Medvedev: the Russian leader once even gifted the presidency to his former right-hand man in 2008. The swap allowed Putin to keep power in his own hands while adhering to the constitutional term limits that had previously been in place. Medvedev duly warmed the presidential chair, earning a passing grade as a “modernizer” — using an iPad and touring Silicon Valley. But when his four-year term ended, he meekly gave way to Putin's return to the Kremlin.
Also read: Medvedev called security guarantees for Ukraine “a prologue to the Third World War”
Medvedev served as Russian prime minister for another eight years before becoming deputy chairman of the Security Council in 2020 — again reporting directly to Putin, who heads it. The war played an evil joke on Medvedev, whose attempts to shake off the image of Putin's “lesser evil twin” by pretending to be a madman with nuclear threats were drowned out by bursts of hysterical laughter from readers of his Telegram channel. At 57, Medvedev is still young enough to rule Russia again, but his fate is inextricably linked to that of Putin.
The Guardian” Alexei Dyumin
According to his own words, Dyumin once saved Putin from a night attack by a brown bear on the doorstep of the mountain residence. Fearlessly loyal but still humane (the bear survived) – what better traits to succeed Putin while ensuring the elder statesman can enjoy a comfortable retirement and avoid a war crimes trial in The Hague?
The most famous veteran of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation, Dyumin also tasted success on the battlefield as a commander of special forces in the operation to annex Crimea in 2014. Two years later, Putin appointed him governor of the Tula region. According to some sources, Dyumin is Putin's favorite, but his privileged status will make him vulnerable if a power struggle breaks out in the Kremlin.
“The Young Prince” Dmitry Patrushev
Putin's allies in the Kremlin aren't getting any younger, but that doesn't mean the regime won't seek to perpetuate itself. It was Nikolai Patrushev, after being appointed to head the FSB in 2000, who called the Russian espionage elite “the new nobility.” His son, Dmitry Patrushev, became a reliable potential successor. 44-year-old Patrushev Jr. was appointed Minister of Agriculture in 2018, previously he graduated from the FSB Academy and headed the state-owned Rosselkhozbank. ” could reduce fears around the world that Russia, already defeated in Ukraine, will begin a suicidal nuclear escalation. A designated hereditary ruler would have a stronger survival instinct than a mad dictator hiding in an underground bunker.
Kremlin Plot: Putin will be removed from power, be incapacitated or killed
For all the talk of managed succession, experience shows that heads of the Kremlin tend to leave it “of their own accord”: Lenin and Stalin both died natural death, like Brezhnev and his two immediate successors. The last sitting head of the Russian state to be assassinated was Tsar Alexander II in 1881.
There are, however, precedents when leaders were forced to step down — Nikita Khrushchev in 1964 and Mikhail Gorbachev, whose fall in 1991 finally brought down the curtain on the Soviet Union. The struggle for the succession to the throne was often fought among Kremlin insiders.
The Troika
Perhaps the closest historical parallel to the autocratic Putin is that of Stalin, whose death in 1953 sparked a power struggle in which the temporary collective power of the Troika ended with the execution of one of its members, former secret police chief Lavrentiy Beria. In 1955, Khrushchev separated from Prime Minister Georgy Malenkov, becoming the leader of the Communist Party and the government. A year later, he gave a speech in which he denounced the cult of the personality of Stalin, beginning the “thaw” after years of terror.
It is tempting to conclude that if Putin had been deposed and a collective leadership had come to power, his departure could would lead to the de-escalation of Russia's proxy war with the West.
“The center of gravity of the elite is against the war. They never liked it,” says Nigel Gould-Davis, the former British ambassador to Belarus and now an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Regime change in autocracies usually comes from within, notes Gould-Davis, who assesses the chances of a controlled transition of power in the Russian Federation as “zero”. Putin lost a chance to organize his succession when he rewrote the constitution two years ago, the analyst believes.
It is difficult to speculate on who might have conspired to remove Putin from power, but history suggests that representatives of the “power ministries” on the Security Council would be among them – however loyal to Putin they may seem now . Patrushev Sr., FSB boss Alexander Bortnikov, Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu are worth watching.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin
Article 92.3 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation emphasizes that in all cases when the president cannot perform his duties, the prime minister “temporarily” assumes them. This puts Mishustin in the best position to become acting head of state if Putin falls seriously ill or is killed. Mishustin, 56, was Russia's chief “tax collector” until he was appointed prime minister in 2020, when Putin pushed through constitutional changes that effectively paved the way for him to become president for life.
Mishustin served as a loyal anti-crisis manager, working to minimize the economic consequences of Western sanctions. But there is a potential twist: If Putin is incapacitated, the constitution expressly prevents him from returning to power, even if he recovers. Could this be a case of “the first to get up gets his slippers”?
“Moscow” Sergey Sobyanin
The quintessential insider, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin could become a contender for the role of Putin's successor if protests in the capital escalate to a point where repression is no longer viable and constructive engagement is needed to complete an orderly transition of power. This is by no means a baseline scenario: protests against Putin's mobilization order have not reached the scale of the Euromaidan in Kyiv, which forced then-President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych to step down in early 2014.
During his 12 years in office, Sobyanin showed himself to be a competent “political machine”. He made the metropolis more livable by creating parks, restoring historic buildings and modernizing public transportation, until much of that progress was destroyed by sanctions. The 64-year-old Sobyanin was previously the governor of the oil-rich Tyumen region (from 2001 to 2005), the head of the Kremlin administration (2005-2008) and Putin's deputy prime minister (2008-2010).
“Color Revolution“: Russians rise up against Putin
Putin's pathological determination to erase Ukraine from the world map stems from his fear that Kyiv might inspire a “color” revolution in Russia. Ukrainians have already removed their leaders from power several times through peaceful protest, during the Orange Revolution and Euromaidan.
“Prisoner” Alexei Navalny
Anti-corruption fighter Alexei Navalny may be a prime candidate for leadership in Russia's Color Revolution, having helped organize protests against Putin's return to the presidency a decade ago. These demonstrations, the largest in post-Soviet Russia, ultimately failed. But Navalny did not stop, focusing his efforts on exposing corruption. The state retaliated by poisoning him with a nerve agent and imprisoning him on trumped-up fraud charges.
Also read: Navalny accused of extremism: now faces another 15 years in prison
Navalny is trying to oppose the war from behind bars. But his chances of going from a prison cell to the position of president are small. Analysts can imagine a scenario in which Putin will be deposed, and the next Russian leader, as a sign of reconciliation with the West, will stop persecuting “dissidents” such as Navalny, journalist Vladimir Kara-Murza or video blogger Ilya Yashin. But this would be only the first step on a long and winding path to power in a country that has not yet held free or fair elections.
“Exile” Mikhail Khodorkovsky
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Former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky is another critic of the regime who opposed Putin and lost, eventually being stripped of the Yukos oil empire, thrown in prison for 10 years, and finally “sent into exile.” His Open Russia Foundation, banned in the Russian Federation, continues to advocate reforms, but Khodorkovsky himself shows no clear ambitions for a triumphant return and a leadership role in post-Putin Russia.
Khodorkovsky, 59, strongly supports Ukraine's resistance to Russian aggression, urging the West to supply more weapons. But his “reputation as a ruthless businessman” has not been forgotten by Russians who still remember the chaotic Yeltsin years, when oligarchs amassed vast assets through corrupt privatization that stripped the nation of its Soviet industrial heritage.
“Dark times”: Putin's regime will be overthrown by military means
Although there is no history of successful military coups in modern Russia, it would be a mistake to rule out the possibility of Putin's removal from power as a result of an armed uprising. Here are a few key players to watch if Russia's next ruler is elected at gunpoint.
The Butcher Mikhail Mizintsev
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov have both had unsuccessful wars, effectively ruling them out as credible leaders for any moves by the military department to seize power. In Russia, there is no tradition of disgruntled officers staging a coup.
But there is one general who thrives after earning a reputation for staggering cruelty: Mikhail Mizintsev, the “Butcher of Mariupol.” Mizintsev led a devastating siege that killed more than 20,000 civilians before the port city of Mariupol was captured by Russian forces in May. He has been promoted to deputy defense minister in charge of logistics as Russia seeks to reverse Ukraine's counteroffensive and end the mobilization chaos. Mizintsev may not be a direct contender for power, but he will be a face to watch in the coming days and weeks.
“Warlord” Ramzan Kadyrov
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who calls himself “Putin's foot soldier,” is one of the most prominent supporters of Russia's war against Ukraine. He characterizes the war as a bandit showdown between his army of “Kadyrivets” and the enemies of Ukraine, whom he called neo-Nazi “demons.” However, his troops performed better as warriors in TikTok than at the front.
Read also: The Kadyrovs, who were initially supposed to liquidate the leadership of Ukraine, are now lying in refrigerators in Belarus – Zakaev
Kadyrov is a crude propagandist of the regime, his Telegram channel has more than 2.6 million subscribers. However, any attempt to use Putin's weakness to promote his own political affairs would put Kadyrov at personal risk, according to analyst Sergey Guryev.
It is more likely that Kadyrov will push for greater autonomy or independence for Chechnya if there are political upheavals in Russia, the analyst believes.
The “mercenary” Yevgeny Prigozhin
If someone who looks like the commander-in-chief of Russia right now is Yevgeny Prigozhin, an oligarch known as “Putin's cook” who leads the Wagnerian army. Prigozhin, 61, was recently caught on camera recruiting prisoners, promising them freedom if they went to fight against Ukraine.
Read also: “Putin's cook” Prigozhin admitted for the first time that he created the “Wagner” PMC smells blood,” journalist Bellingcat Hristo Grozev wrote on Twitter.
However, for a warlord like Prigozhin to have even the slightest chance of power would require a stunning coup on the battlefield — where much of the territory claimed by Russia since 2014 would be lost and hordes of disgruntled Russian soldiers would return home.
“The state must be in an absolutely catastrophic situation,” says political scientist Mark Galeotti.
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There is no such precedent in the late imperial, Soviet and modern history of the Russian Federation. The closest parallels can be the revolutionary events of 1905 and 1917, which took place after military disasters. In 1905, Tsar Nicholas II stayed in power by agreeing to limited democratic reforms. In February 1917, his overthrow initially led to the formation of a provisional liberal government, and the Bolsheviks led by Lenin seized power only in October of the same year.
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