US intelligence knows much more about the Russian army than it does about the Ukrainian army amid billions of dollars in arms transfers.
President Volodymyr Zelensky publishes a report on social networks every day on the fight against the Russian invasion . Videos showing the effectiveness of Western weapons in the hands of the Ukrainian military have gone viral. And the Pentagon regularly holds briefings on the course of the war.
But despite the whole stream of news, US intelligence does not have the information about Ukrainian operations that it would like. She has a better idea of Russia's military, its planned operations, successes and failures, the New York Times reported, citing current and former US officials.
Governments often keep information secret from society for operational security reasons. But these information gaps within the US government could complicate the Joe Biden administration's decision-making process on military aid at a time when it is sending billions of dollars in weapons to Ukraine. U.S. officials say the Ukrainian government does not provide them with many classified briefings or details about operational plans. The Ukrainian side admits that it does not say everything to its American colleagues.
Of course, US intelligence agencies collect information about almost every country in the world, including Ukraine. But American spies are focused on gathering data on hostile governments, such as Russia, and not on friends like Ukraine. Russia has been a top priority for US intelligence for 75 years. But when it comes to Ukrainians, the United States has focused more on strengthening its intelligence capabilities than spying on the government in Kyiv. As a result, “blind spots” have emerged.
What do we really know about Ukraine's success? Can anyone say exactly how many soldiers and how much equipment she lost? ” said Beth Sanner, a former intelligence officer.
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Even without a full understanding of Ukraine's strategy and situation, The Biden administration is promoting the transfer of new tools, such as HIMARS . Ukraine is waiting for the delivery of more powerful Western weapons at a time when both sides are suffering heavy losses in the Donbas. The Pentagon claims that they are following a careful process of sending weapons, which begins with a request from Kyiv. Then the United States evaluates what equipment the Ukrainian side needs and how quickly it can learn to use it. Some European agencies say it will be difficult for Ukraine, if at all, to regain the territories that Russia has occupied since February. But US intelligence estimates are less pessimistic. However, gaps remain in Ukraine's defense. And the question of the state of the Ukrainian army and its strategy in Donbas creates an incomplete picture for Washington.
Director of the US National Intelligence Agency Avril Gaines told the Senate last month that it was “difficult” to say how much aid Ukraine could accept.
“We actually have more information about the Russian side than about the Ukrainian side,” she admitted.
One of the questions is what Zelensky is going to do in Donbass. Ukraine is faced with a strategic choice: to withdraw its troops or take the risk that Russia may surround them. In recent days, Kyiv has provided more information. On Sunday, Zelensky visited the front line and called the fighting in Severodonetsk “extremely difficult.” He also acknowledged that about 100 Ukrainian soldiers die every day. And Russia occupied a fifth of the country. The New York Times writes that such more outspoken statements could prepare society for the strategic choices to be made in Donbass, analysts say.
be trapped if you stay in position. If there is a deliberate withdrawal, Zelensky will have to explain it so that it does not seem humiliating to the Ukrainian army. He will need an explanation for the Ukrainian people if he has to withdraw troops. A logical explanation for the losses will also be needed if they remain, “said Stephen Biddle, a professor of international relations at Columbia University.
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The United States provides Ukraine with intelligence on the deployment of Russian forces in almost real time. And Kyiv uses this information to plan operations and strikes, as well as to strengthen its position. But even with talks with Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Millie or Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Ukrainian officials share their strategic goals, but not detailed operational plans.
Officials say Ukraine is trying to maintain the image of power seen in society and by close partners. The government does not want to share information that may give the impression of weakening determination or possible defeat. “Ukrainian officials are reluctant to provide information that could persuade the United States and other Western partners to slow the flow of weapons,” the New York Times reported.
For years, the United States has encouraged Ukraine to strengthen its defense and intelligence services against Russian spies. Informing other countries about their plans and operational situation may indicate weaknesses that Moscow will then exploit if it learns about them. Dr. Biddle admits that Ukraine has good reasons not to talk openly about its forces and military strategy.
“I do not think it is in the interests of American or Ukrainian society for Ukrainians to speak openly about their losses if it results in increased Russian military efforts. But it also means that we don't really know both sides of history, “he said.
See the special topic: on peace “is not a matter of the near future” However, they support the diplomatic path of ending Russia's war against Ukraine. The fate of Donbass is being decided in Severodonetsk – Zelensky The city remains the epicenter of the confrontation in Donbass 13 years behind bars will be two Ukrainians who came to occupy the Kherson region They joined the enemy in 2014. The European Parliament supported a resolution recommending that Ukraine be granted EU candidate status . The body also called for arms to be supplied to Ukraine as soon as possible. At least 540,000 Ukrainians lost their homes due to the war – Mincifer A total of 195,000 property restitution applications were filed through the Action.
