Kyiv needs significant successes on the battlefield to retain the support of the US and Europe, but it is their help that is needed to achieve these successes.
Just a few weeks ago, the Ukrainian army suffered from ruthless enemy strikes in Donbas. Losses were great, and Russian troops gradually captured new territories. Western support has weakened amid growing skepticism about the prospect that Ukraine can win a war of attrition or that sending advanced weapons will change the course of the war.
But despite all this, Ukraine's message to the world has not changed: “We can win. Our strategy is slow, but it works. Just let the flow of weapons continue.”
“No one can yet say for sure whether Ukraine is capable of defeating the Russian army if the number of weapons increases. And what will this victory be. Ukrainian requests for more weapons have become so frequent that some in the West have begun to perceive them as unrealistic background noise,” writes the New York Times.
But this week, after using long-range artillery systems to destroy Russian infrastructure, Ukraine is once again trying to convince the world that it is still capable of defeating Russia. And now she has proof. Officials point to recent successes, such as the strike on a Russian munitions depot using HIMARS systems in Novaya Kakhovka. A few days ago, Ukrainian artillery damaged the bridge over the Dnipro, which played an important role in providing Russian forces. Analysts believe that this indicates the beginning of a counteroffensive in the south with the aim of liberating Kherson. On Thursday, Ukrainian officials said the army attacked more than 200 targets in the south with long-range artillery.
Despite renewed Ukrainian optimism, military analysts and officials in the West say it is too early to talk about a turning point. And a lot of work still needs to be done. They also warn that one should not place too high hopes on a specific type of weapon amid the chaos and instability of the front line, which stretches for hundreds of kilometers from Kharkiv to Mykolaiv.
“Now we are achieving what we could not reach earlier But there is no breakthrough at the front. There is no panacea, no magic wand that will bring victory tomorrow,” said Taras Chmut, director of the Come Back Alive Foundation.
However, key security officials in Kyiv are optimistic.
“The sooner our partners provide us with weapons, the sooner the war will end,” said Oleksiy Danilov, head of the NSDC.
Ukraine received support for its strategy when the US agreed to transfer four more HIMARS installations and other weapons, including air defense systems. NASAM, which would help protect Ukrainian cities from Russian missiles. Defense Minister Lloyd Austin is also optimistic about Ukraine's chances of success.
“Our aid affects the situation on the ground. Russia thinks that it can last longer than Ukraine and us. But this is just another Russian miscalculation,” he said.
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The head of MI6, Richard Moore, is also optimistic. He said that the Russian army “is about to exhaust itself.” She will have to pause somehow. And this will give Ukraine the opportunity to strike back. The New York Times, however, writes that the question of whether long-range weapons will really help to achieve a turning point in the war and force the Russian army to withdraw remains unanswered. The US and Europe are afraid of sending too much equipment to Ukraine before Ukrainian soldiers learn to use it. Analysts say that the country's army is not able to master new types of weapons as easily as it says about it. Western officials also fear that the firepower will give Kyiv confidence and that it may launch a counteroffensive too soon. The Pentagon, in turn, is alarmed by the depletion of its own reserves in the coming months.
By intensifying attacks in the south, Ukraine faced another strategic choice. How to use new lethal opportunities: concentrate firepower in the east or break through to occupied Kherson.
“Strategy always means making new decisions and making concessions in something,” said Michael Kofman, director of the CNA Institute.
Western officials understand Ukraine's desire to return the territory under its control and ensure a victory that would give hope. But the West also fears that the Ukrainian army is not yet ready for a large-scale counteroffensive in the Kherson region. Kyiv assures that it does not resort to risky maneuvers with new weapons. And will not take any big steps prematurely.
“We understand that we currently do not have enough resources for an active strategy. We work with our partners. When we have enough opportunities, then we will make decisions about future actions,” said Brigadier General Oleksandr Kyrylenko.
Director of the McCain Institute and former assistant to the US Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia Evelyn Farkas believes that Kyiv can defeat the Russian army. But this ability of his is not eternal, because the support of the West is based on signs that would prove that Ukraine is capable of liberating the occupied territories.
“It is not enough for them to restrain the Russians. If the Ukrainians are unable to show success on the battlefield, US and European support for Ukrainian defense efforts will become weaker,” Farkas said.
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