Experts say the end of the Cold War was in fact a “mirage”, and now the confrontation between West and East has resumed.
For 9 weeks, US President Joe Biden and Western the allies stressed the need to ensure that Russia's war against Ukraine remained within Ukraine's borders. Fear is now growing in Washington and European capitals that the conflict could escalate into a wider war, spreading to neighboring countries and cyberspace. In addition, Moscow may cut off gas supplies to NATO countries.
In the long run, such enlargement could escalate into a more direct conflict between Washington and Moscow, reminiscent of the Cold War, in which each side seeks to weaken the other. This was reported by the New York Times.
For the past three days, the US Secretary of Defense has called for efforts to reduce the Russian military's ability to lose its ability to invade neighboring countries for many years to come. Russia has cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, which joined NATO after the collapse of the Soviet Union. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was quick to condemn it as an “instrument of blackmail.” Meanwhile, explosions erupted in Transnistria in Moldova, which could be a new victim of Moscow's aggression. And in Russia itself, oil depots and even a missile plant exploded under mysterious circumstances. Moscow has also increasingly reminded the world of its size and nuclear arsenal, hinting that if Putin's regular troops are humiliatingly defeated, he has another trump card.
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US and European officials say they see no evidence that Russia is mobilizing its field nuclear forces. But behind the scenes, discussions are already under way on how the West can react if Moscow conducts nuclear tests or a demonstrative explosion over the Black Sea or in Ukraine.
“No one wants this war to be even bigger than it already is. And no one really wants, or at least shouldn't, want it to become nuclear, “said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby. France, Israel and Turkey did not yield results. Ukrainian and Russian forces are preparing for a long-running conflict. In the east and south, it looks like an artillery war will begin, where Russia has sent its army after a humiliating retreat from the outskirts of Kiev and other key cities.
“Putin does not want to back down, as do the Ukrainians. So much more blood will be shed, “said Robin Niblett, director of Chatham House. retreat. Even Germany renounced its old position and approved the sending of artillery systems and armored vehicles to Ukraine.
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According to Seth Jones, director of the European Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., the risk of “war escalation is now very serious.” And the United States is sending more powerful weapons, which will increase these losses, “he said.
According to Jones, sooner or later Russian military intelligence may begin to attack these supplies in NATO countries. Not all lines of communication between Washington and Moscow have been severed. The United States and Russia have exchanged prisoners. In Turkey, former Marine Trevor Reed has been exchanged for a Russian pilot accused by the Justice Department of drug trafficking. But even this episode was very reminiscent of the Cold War, to which Washington and Moscow seem to have returned. Princeton University professor Stephen Kotkin recently said that “the end of the first Cold War was a mirage.” Because attempts to integrate Russia into the Western world have failed. Biden himself is also convinced that Putin wants to go far beyond Ukraine. On the day of the Russian invasion, the US president said that the invasion was “undisguised aggression, Putin's desire to build an empire at any cost.”
But so far the war continues within the geographical borders of Ukraine. The United States and its allies say their goal is to force Russia to withdraw its troops “forever” and to respect Ukraine's borders. Putin condemned Western efforts to help the Ukrainian army. However, he did not attack supply lines in NATO. Now there are signs that this restraint will soon come to an end.
When Gazprom cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, it was a clear warning to Germany, which is heavily dependent on Russian energy, that it could become next. Russia is using its biggest economic lever to intimidate Eastern and Western Europe, hinting that the next winter will be very cold for them. Washington believes that gas blackmail is aimed at dividing NATO allies that have been consolidated so far.
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