The future of the world will now depend on China's behavior, which can either lead to the bloody rivalry of the great powers, or maintain a relatively peaceful coexistence.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine could mean a disturbing change in the world, namely the end of a peaceful global era. There have been fewer wars in the world since the 1990s than in any other historical period, although, at first glance, this has not always been the case.
The number of deadly conflicts has erupted since the end of the Cold War in 1991. And we are talking about both direct and indirect clashes between the great powers, – writes the New York Times.
“The end of the Cold War has been the greatest achievement for the world in a long time,” said Jeremy Shapiro, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
But the world has changed. Remaining the only superpower since the Cold War, the United States has become weaker. They are mired in failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Russia and China have become more formidable forces. They are now in a better position to challenge the world shaped by American norms and rules. The invasion of Ukraine is the greatest example of Vladimir Putin's willingness to question the US-led world order. Another similar example was Russian intervention in the Syrian civil war.
China is pursuing its own interests. In particular, he dreams of taking control of Taiwan and increasing his influence in the Far East and Southeast Asia. The strengthening of cooperation between Moscow and Beijing in recent years also indicates that they are trying to draw new lines of global rivalry. And in response to these threats, other potential major players, such as Europe, are rebuilding their armies. Experts say the world has not seemed so shaky for decades.
Throughout human history, war has been the norm. From the 16th to the 18th centuries, the great powers fought each other almost all the time. In the 19th and 20th centuries alone, they were involved in the conflicts that led to the outbreak of two world wars and cost the lives of more than 100 million people. Tens of millions more were forced to flee the war. But after the Cold War, according to international security experts at Ohio State University's Beer Braumüller, the level of new conflicts has more than halved. And the outbreaks were much smaller in scale. The death toll from the fighting has plummeted. This was partly due to the fact that the armies began to better treat their wounded soldiers.
William Walfort, an expert on international relations at Dartmouth College, says the reduction in world wars has been unprecedented.
“We will not find another period in history with such a sharp change in conflict trends,” he explained.
There are some key features to this global world. There was no rivalry between the great powers, because no country could challenge the United States. Nuclear weapons have kept states from declaring war on each other, given the potential apocalyptic consequences. The increasingly integrated global economy has made any war too great a threat to everyone's growth. But peacekeeping institutions, such as the United Nations and the European Union, have created the conditions for countries to resolve disputes between them. They also monitored anti-war measures, although not always successfully.
Another element – the status of a great state was no longer synonymous with the thirst for conquest. For a century, the United States, as a superpower, has seen the seizure of other nations as a harmful practice that will destroy the world order built by Washington. The American aggression in Vietnam, Panama, Iraq and other countries has always aimed to protect the world order, no matter how bad the justifications for these wars.
Russia and China have never liked American leadership. For decades, both countries have demanded a new structure in which they can play greater roles and may even dominate the functioning of the world. Russia is pursuing its imperialist ambitions in Eastern Europe and sees NATO enlargement as an “existential threat.” China has benefited greatly from the liberal order and globalization. But its leaders are now also persecuting dissidents at home, the government in Taiwan, protesters in Hong Kong and Uighur Muslims.
China and Russia have opportunities to embody their beliefs. Putin has consolidated his power in the country for more than 20 years, and has also modernized the Russian army. Although the invasion of Ukraine came to a standstill, exposing numerous Russian weaknesses. China has built its economy so much that it may soon be in competition with the United States. In addition, it increases military strength and regional influence.
This could lead to even greater rivalry between the great powers. Potentially, this could be expressed in the outbreak of new indirect wars between these countries. Or a direct conflict against the West may begin. But any major shift in the world depends largely on China's behavior, as it is the only one capable of rivaling the United States. “Given the risks of war, Beijing can continue to pursue its interests at the economic and diplomatic levels without resorting to brute force,” said international security expert Stacy Goddard.
China has also repeatedly called for respect for the country's sovereignty. There are reasons to be skeptical of these statements, in particular because of Beijing's attitude towards Taiwan and its loyalty to Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. However, if China is not joking, then the war in Ukraine may not be a manifestation of nightmares ahead, but the last deadly breath of the Cold War.
