The assertion that in order to end the war, Moscow needs to be given something that it can present as a “victory” is wrong, because it will only lay the groundwork for a new Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine 10 weeks ago, Western governments relentlessly condemned the aggression and talked about how they support Kyiv. But despite this unity of indignation, their goals remained blurred.
Now this situation has begun to change. Recently, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that his country would like Russia to “weaken so much” that it will not be able to threaten its neighbors. The Minister for Foreign Affairs of the United Kingdom Liz Trass announced: “We want Ukraine to win this war.”
However, the West has not yet clearly described how it wants this war to end, writes Nigel Gould-Davis, a senior fellow at Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, in the New York Times. The West has chosen the means to respond to Russian aggression. He began sending military aid to Ukraine and imposed sanctions on Russia. However, Europe and the United States have not defined the purpose of these tools. Instead, Western politicians have focused on the consequences they would like to avoid. First, they do not want the overthrow of the Ukrainian government in Kyiv and the establishment of a Russian puppet regime. And secondly, the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine or the expansion of the war beyond Ukrainian borders.
There are many potential outcomes between these two borders. But in practice everything is much easier. Will Russia be better or worse after the war than before February 24, 2022? Any result that will improve the Kremlin's position will be a Russian victory. Even if Russia fails to achieve its original goal of conquering all of Ukraine.
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The West needs a strategy that will ensure that Russia's situation after the war is worse than before the invasion. The peace, which for the second time since 2014 will reward Moscow with a piece of Ukrainian territory for its aggression, will have dire consequences for Ukraine's future, for trust in and security in the West, and for the norms of sovereignty and non-interference in international order. >
First, such a peace rehabilitates both Russia's aggression and its human rights violations. The Kremlin will manipulate the facts to present its people with a victory. Territorial and propaganda achievements will not satisfy him, but will only add confidence. That is why such a peace not only paves the way for a new Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also undermines security and confidence in the West.
Second, a reduced Ukraine will be weakened forever, especially if Russia consolidates or even expands control over Ukraine's coastline. At least one Russian general has admitted that this is Moscow's strategic goal. If the aggressor succeeds in implementing such a plan, it will stifle Ukraine and give Russia an advantage in negotiations on at least three other issues to be resolved in the future peace agreement. One of them concerns the status of Ukraine. Will her right to join unions and international organizations be limited? Another problem is the people abducted and deported by the Russian army. Will they be able to return home from Russia? And the third question: under what conditions will the West weaken the economic isolation of Russia? If Moscow gains control of Ukrainian territories, it will have the opportunity to bargain in resolving all these issues.
Russia may also continue to commit atrocities in the territories it controls. Ukrainians are likely to resist the occupation. The end of fighting will not mean the end of violence. Rather, it will be the beginning of further Russian aggression. Occupation is not a recipe for stability. In the end, Ukraine will accept the new loss of territory only after a long and very expensive battle. Each new day of war in Ukraine brings even more deaths and destructions that weaken the country. But some European countries seem ready to stand by and watch the two sides exhaust their war for months or even years. Silently waiting for the war to come to a standstill to determine who will control the peace process is to prefer Russia.
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To prevent all this from happening, the West must do everything to make Russia worse after the war than before it. At least Western politicians must make sure that Moscow does not get a new piece of Ukrainian territory. Sanctions must continue until Russia's policy toward Ukraine changes. A tough approach to sanctions begins with a clear understanding that Russia must remain completely isolated from the Western economy. And only on the basis of this position, we can discuss some necessary exceptions. Instead, there is an attempt to disable some operations, while maintaining the status quo. The next steps, including refusing to import Russian oil and gas into Europe, will be more expensive than any other sanctions. However, there is no loss-free way to eliminate the great threat to the security of the continent. The new sanctions will be unpleasant for Europe, but catastrophic for Russia. The West must win this determination race.
The West must also involve the wider international community in upholding its agenda of defending sovereignty and independence from imperialist aggression. This means that it is not only Congress that needs to provide a $ 40 billion aid package, as President Biden has requested. Europe must also follow suit. June marks the 75th anniversary of the Marshall Plan, which revived a depleted Europe, restored its credibility and helped contain the Soviet Union. Now Europe must do the same for Ukraine, pledging to rebuild Ukrainian cities and revive the war-torn economy.
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Fear of Russian escalation should not stop the West. Russia is recklessly threatening nuclear weapons trying to play on the fear of Western governments. But this game of muscles shows that Moscow has no other options. The failed war exposed many of Russia's weaknesses. Therefore, weapons of mass destruction are the only argument in Russia's claim to global greatness. However, weakness does not make irrational threats more plausible. Arguments in the spirit: “Russia will use nuclear weapons if it is not allowed to gain something in the war” – do not restrain the resistance of the Armed Forces. And they should not restrain the West.
The cost of strategic inaction can be very high. The inability to clearly define targets has led to the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina taking too long. Jacques Poos, President of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the European Community, announced in 1991 that “Europe's time has come”. However, the Bosnian war lasted three years and cost about 100,000 lives. The West should not repeat this mistake.
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