Each subsequent Kremlin plan is even more bloody than the previous one.
After a chaotic month, it is now clear what strategies are being played out in Ukraine. Right now, Vladimir Putin's Plan B is in opposition to Presidents Vladimir Zelensky and Joe Biden's Plan A. And we must hope that the presidents of Ukraine and the United States will prevail. Because the potential Kremlin plan “B” is very scary. And the “D” plan is not even worth mentioning, writes three-time Pulitzer Prize winner Thomas Friedman in his article for the New York Times .
He explains that he has no secret channels in the Kremlin. And he draws all his conclusions from observations of Putin's behavior in the Middle East over the years. In his opinion, the Russian autocrat realized that his plan “A” had failed. Expectations that the Russian army would march through Ukraine, eliminate the “Nazi” government, and then the whole country would fall peacefully into Russia's arms, did not come true. Now he is implementing the following plan, shelling peaceful Ukrainians, their apartments, hospitals, businesses and even bomb shelters. All this is done only to ensure that Ukrainians flee their homes, creating a massive influx of refugees both within Ukraine and in neighboring NATO countries, which is much more important.
“Putin, I suspect, thinks that if he cannot occupy and hold all of Ukraine by military means and simply impose his terms of peace, 5-10 million Ukrainian refugees, mostly women, children and the elderly, should be sent to Poland and Hungary. and Western Europe. In order to create such a great social and economic burden, these NATO countries should start putting pressure on Zelensky and demanding that he agree to Putin's terms in order to stop the war, “the American journalist said.
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Putin apparently understands that his plan involves committing war crimes and could make Russia a pariah forever. However, he hopes that the need for Russian oil, gas and wheat, as well as Russia's support for regional issues such as Iran's nuclear program, could quickly force the world to return to normal business with the Kremlin's “pagan”, as has often been the case. in the past.
According to the author, Putin's plan “B” is unfolding properly. The France-Presse news agency reported on Sunday: “More than 3.3 million refugees have fled Ukraine since the start of the war. This is the biggest crisis due to the influx of refugees since World War II. Another 6.5 million people have moved inside the country. “
At the same time, Putin's Plan B is in frontal confrontation with the actions of Biden and Zelensky. Plan “A” of the Ukrainian president is implemented even better than expected. He suggests that the Ukrainian army should stop the enemy's attack on land, break his spirit, and then Putin can be forced to agree to Zelensky's terms in the world with minimal concessions, so that the Kremlin master kept his face. Despite the barbaric bloodshed and bombardment by Russia, Zelensky is right to say that he is still seeking a diplomatic solution. At the same time, he supports the fighting spirit of his citizens and calls on Putin to negotiate. Friedman also reminds of the conclusions of Western officials and experts that the war in Ukraine “has already come to a standstill.” Russia no longer has the strength to attack Kyiv and has no chance of capturing the capital, Kharkiv or Odessa. In addition, Western economic sanctions are also bearing fruit, collapsing the Russian economy and forcing Russian plants to shut down.
Now the next question is: “Pressure on NATO countries with the help of refugees driven abroad by Putin's military machine will overcome the pressure from which his army suffers in Ukraine and which is becoming more difficult every day?”. The answer to this question can determine when and how this war will end. Will there be clear winners and losers. Either it will end in a dirty compromise in Putin's favor or vice versa.
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Friedman does not rule out that Putin may view any compromise as a humiliation that would undermine his authoritarian rule. In that case, he can run Plan B. According to the journalist, this plan will include air or missile attacks on supply lines leading from Poland to Ukraine. In fact, it is possible that the blow will be inflicted on Polish territory, and therefore on NATO territory. Then other allies will be forced to come to the aid of Poland. Putin probably hopes that the need to engage in a direct battle with the Russian army will lead to a powerful debate in NATO countries, especially in the United States. It does not matter what happens in Ukraine. If Putin can split the alliance, it will be a huge achievement that he can cover up all his defeats.
The author also admits that if plan “B” and “B” fail, then the Russian dictator may feel that he has been cornered. And at this point, he is at risk of using nuclear weapons, for the first time since Nagasaki. It's hard to talk and write about that. But ignoring this possibility would be too naive.
See the special topic: In Mariupol, a young gymnast Ekaterina Dyachenko died as a result of shelling by the Russian occupiers. She did not survive the siege of the city. Putin plans to attend G20 summit – Reuters This year it is organized by Indonesia. NATO will not enter into a confrontation in Ukraine – Scholz German Chancellor said that Ukraine can count on German help. The Foreign Ministry named the principles in which Ukraine will not yield to Russia in the talks Sending NATO peacekeepers to Ukraine will be “incredibly dangerous” – Kremlin According to Moscow, the consequences of such events will be “difficult to correct.”
