The second stage of the war against Ukraine will not bring Moscow the desired success, because the Ukrainian army has already completely switched to the latest methods of warfare.
Vladimir Putin is preparing a massive military operation to try capture at least a small part of the territory in eastern Ukraine. So he hopes to justify his failed war against Ukraine.
“I thought, who could give him the best advice now? My choice fell on one of the main teachers of strategy – Johnny Arkville, who recently retired as an honorary professor of defense analysis at the US Naval Graduate School. When I called Arkvili and asked what he would say to Putin today, he did not hesitate: “I would say: negotiate peace, fool!”. This advice is also known as the first rule of the pit: get in it, stop digging, “wrote Thomas Friedman, a journalist and three-time Pulitzer Prize winner, in the New York Times.
Arkville did not take his advice from the air. After landing in Normandy on June 6, 1944, it quickly became clear that the Germans were unable to contain the Allied breakthrough. So after the failure of the German counterattack near Cannes on July 1, German Field Marshal Gerd von Rundstedt called Berlin to inform Army Commander Wilhelm Keitel. He asked, “So what do we do now?” To this von Rundstedt replied: “Agree on peace, fools! What else are you going to do here? ”.
The next day von Rundstedt was released. Putin did the same, appointing a general to command the second phase of the war against Ukraine, who helped defeat the opposition movement in Syria with extreme brutality. This did not work for Germany during World War II. And Arkville explains why Putin's army is again facing very strong resistance from the Ukrainian army during the second phase in Donbas. He points out the many new features of the Russian-Ukrainian war that will determine the future of the fighting in general.
“In many ways, this is the Spanish Civil War of our era. Then the Germans tested many new weapons, including Stuka bombers and Panzer tanks. The Allies also draw conclusions from that war just before World War II. The same thing is happening in Ukraine when it comes to a new generation of methods of warfare, “said the American expert who wrote the book” Blitzkrieg: New Challenges of Cyber Warfare. “
” In this book, I described three new rules of war. . And Ukrainians seem to adhere to each of them. The first is that many little ones beat the big and the heavy. The Armed Forces operate on small tactical groups armed with high-precision weapons. They smash large Russian formations and attack slow and loud helicopters. So even if Russia has a quantitative advantage, there are many small and very active formations in Ukraine, “he explained.
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The second rule, which is true in the war in Ukraine: “Orientation takes precedence over flanking.” He who is able to detect the enemy first, will be the first to destroy it. This is not difficult to do if the enemy consists of several large formations such as 40-kilometer columns of armored vehicles. Of course, drones are helping to identify such goals today. But the main asset of the Ukrainian army, according to Arkville, is “informal intelligence.” Grandmothers with mobile phones give better results than satellites. Anyone with a camera collects useful information about where Russian troops are going. This gives an advantage to the Ukrainian army, which defends itself on its territory and thus receives real-time intelligence.
The third rule: “Raids are better than a great pull together.” According to Aquila, war is no longer a matter of numbers. You no longer need to have a numerical advantage to defeat an opponent. There are enough smaller combat units with advanced weapons.
“I'm sure you've seen a video of Russian tanks and columns in which the first tank suddenly explodes. And everyone who follows him loses the opportunity to maneuver. And then they are also destroyed, “the expert explained.
Will Russia be able to take into account its mistakes before the second phase of the war against Ukraine? Arkville is convinced that Moscow will continue to resort to mass bombing. And in Donbass it will do it even more massively.
“But the ruins are hard to conquer. Remember Stalingrad, “he said, recalling that the Nazi army had completely destroyed the city and then tried to enter the ruins in small groups to seize the territory. Their plan failed.
According to Arkville, Russia will still try to adapt, as it did during the wines against Finland in 1939-1940. Then Finnish troops defeated the Soviet offensive. However, the retreating aggressor regrouped into more mobile groups and resumed the offensive.
“As far as I understand, Russia is activating its marines, which are used to conducting operations in small groups,” he said, explaining that in the next phase of the war, the Russian army will rely more on infantry than on armored vehicles.
But, according to the expert, Ukraine will still have an advantage due to the ability to quickly identify enemy positions to strike. The Russian army remains very centralized.
“One of the reasons why the Russians have lost so many generals is because at the tactical level, they don't have people who are empowered to make quick decisions. Only generals can do that. That's why they're going to the front to do the same job that lieutenants and sergeants do in the U.S. military, “he said. consequences of the war – the Russian opposition
As for the Russian Air Force, Arkville noted that “we have already seen how vulnerable all these planes and helicopters are to Stinger missiles. They will not affect the course of the next phase of the war. ” The expert noted that his assessments do not mean that the Russian army will be finally expelled from Ukrainian territory. However, the Armed Forces have already adapted well to the rules of the latest war and will not allow themselves to be defeated either. What happens next? Who knows.
“I still hope that fool Putin will eventually make an agreement that will save his face and that will involve the withdrawal of Russian troops. Occupied Donetsk and Luhansk will receive some status, and Ukraine will refuse to join NATO. However, Kyiv will join the EU and will receive guarantees that will protect it from a new Russian invasion, “the author writes.
they were the first in the world to apply. But Putin suppressed Russian society, forcing him to obey. The Russian army, humiliated on the battlefield, is also unlikely to rebel against him. So Putin probably doesn't feel the pressure of time to de-escalate, “Arkville explained.
It will be recalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed Commander of the Southern Military District of Russia General of the Army Alexander Dvornikov Commander of the Troops in Ukraine.
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Dvornikov, 60, was Russia's first commander of military operations in Syria after Putin sent troops there in September 2015 to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government.
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