The US presidential election is still far away and the situation may change for both politicians, but so far the strength of the Democrats and Republicans seems to lie only in the weakness of the opponent.
In 2016, when during a survey by the publication The New York Times asked Americans who they were going to vote for: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump – more than 10% said they would not support either of these presidential candidates.
All these people said that they would either vote for someone else or not go to the polls at all. Fewer than 5% said they would not support someone representing a major US party.
This week, the New York Times published the first polls ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. And one of the main signals is that Americans are again as dissatisfied with the main candidates as they were in 2016.
“This is similar to the results of the polls for 2016, not 2020,” he said. New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn.
The survey included questions about whether voters will vote for Joe Bidenor Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election if they run again. The question did not offer any other answer option than to support one of the two politicians. However, 10% of Americans polled said they were not going to support either Biden or Trump. The percentage was even higher among voters under 35.
Equally unpopular
This level of discontent is a reflection of the confrontation of enormous weaknesses in both parties. The Democratic Party has two key problems. The first of them is the approval rating of Biden's actions at 33% (which is similar to Trump's worst performance during his presidency). This is due in part to anxiety over inflation and disruptions to normal daily life due to the pandemic. The second is that the priorities of the Democrats differ from those pursued by the majority of Americans.
The party's representatives in Congress have spent much of the past year arguing with a small group of moderate congressmen who have blocked bills to cut drug prices, fight climate change and other popular measures. Many Democrats – politicians and voters, especially on the “left” wing of the party – were also more focused on cultural issues than on the everyday concerns of Americans, such as inflation.
“The left has set priorities that are simply different from the priorities of the rest of the country. Liberals were more concerned with abortion and gun control than the economy. The concerns of conservatives are more in line with those of the country,” said Nate.
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He also added that, on the other hand, Republicans have many problems of their own. Trump remains the dominant figure in the party. And he's about as unpopular as Biden. The personal approval rating of both politicians is identical – at the level of 39%. Many voters, including independents and a sizable minority in the Republican Party, are offended by the events of January 6 and Trump's role in them. Then the crowd stormed the Capitol.
Republicans also faced problems due to recent decisions of the US Supreme Court. The court issued several tough rulings, including overturning Roe v. Wade. These decisions place the party's policy “to the right” of public opinion. At the same time, the Democrats take a more “left” position in their approach to these same issues.
If not for Biden…
All of this adds up to an interesting mix of conclusions to draw from the New York Times poll. Biden appears to be the weakest sitting president in decades. 61% of Democrats said they hope to see another Democratic presidential nominee in 2024. At the same time, most point to either Biden's age or his successes. But when voters were asked to choose between Biden and Trump, the current president still has a slight advantage over the Republican. In this case, 44% of respondents are ready to vote for Biden, and 41% for Trump.
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Other surveys, polls by YouGov and Harris say Biden has a better chance of defeating Trump than Vice President Kamala Harris. This comparison can be seen as a reminder that Biden won in 2020 for a reason. He's one of the few Democrats who doesn't seem too liberal to voters who tend to switch party allegiances. In other words, Biden is a “beaten” incumbent from a party that has no obvious strong alternative. Of course, the 2024 elections are still a long way off. And it is quite possible that Biden's position will improve or that another potential Democratic candidate will emerge. It is also possible that the situation will change so much that both Biden and Trump will decide not to run for office. But so far, the strength of each of the parties seems to lie only in the weakness of the opponent.
