Experts say that the battle for Donbas is the last offensive that the exhausted Russian army is capable of, and this offensive has already begun. Russia has reloaded. Its offensive in the second phase of the war against Ukraine did not become “the biggest tank battle since World War II,” as some analysts have predicted. Instead, Russian ground forces have shown the same low efficiency by failing to break through in all directions. They believe that by this day Moscow will either find a way to declare victory and stop fighting, or move from a “special military operation” to a “war.” The second will mean large-scale mobilization to defeat Ukraine.
However, on the ground, Russian troops are scattered, exhausted and do not seem to be regaining strength. The U.S. military and intelligence told Newsweek that the long-awaited offensive in the south had already reached a stalemate. Neither side can completely defeat the enemy.
“Russia is once again relying on long-range air strikes, artillery and missile shelling to help its ground forces advance. But it cannot support an offensive along the entire giant front line that it has created. Extremely motivated Ukrainian troops not only deter the enemy, but also advance in some directions. And they see that the enemy is loading. Yes, Russia is fighting, but Ukraine is winning, “an unnamed US Army officer told the newspaper.
Newsweek writes that the second stage of the Russian war against Ukraine began on April 18. The Kremlin has announced that the main goal now will be to capture Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which the Russian army occupied only partially in 2014. Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov said that Russian forces had tried to break through Ukrainian defenses “almost along the entire front line in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions.”
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Kharkiv – the second largest city in Ukraine – is of great symbolic and strategic importance. Because the line of communication from the western part of Russia to the battlefield in the east of Ukraine passes through it. Having launched heavy artillery and rocket fire, Russian troops are trying to “clamp” the Ukrainian army, surrounding it from Kharkiv in the north to occupied Donetsk in the south. Newsweek compares the shape of the Russian offensive line with the “hoof”. At both ends of this form, forces are trying to unite in a circle to isolate the territory between them, ie the remnants of Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
For the success of such “vices” it is necessary to completely defeat the defenders of Ukraine in the almost completely destroyed Mariupol, – analysts say. This would free almost 20% of Russia's total forces. About 10 battalion tactical groups of the Russian army are concentrated in the city. Last Thursday, Putin announced that after 53 days of war, Mariupol had already been “liberated.” Therefore, it is time for the army to move on.
“It is not necessary to climb into these catacombs and crawl through the basements of this plant. Block it so that the fly does not fly, “he said, referring to Azovstal, where about 2,000 Ukrainians remain, more than half of whom are civilians.
Serhiy Volyna, commander of the 36th Marine Brigade of Ukraine, whose unit is still fighting in the city, responded to Putin.
allowing him to step on. And this is at the cost of superhuman efforts and great losses, “said the Ukrainian commander.
Defenders of Mariupol are still holding on. Newsweek writes that as of Sunday, the Russian “vise” in the Donbass loaded. Russian air strikes have become more intense. In addition, Russian forces have increased artillery and missile fire, firing more than a thousand missiles daily. Nevertheless, Russian forces advanced only a few kilometers in some places, losing as much territory as they had captured. But Russia seems to have decided to open another front besides Donbass. Central Military District Commander Rustam Minnekayev told Russian media that the task of the Russian army was to establish “complete control over Donbass and southern Ukraine.” US intelligence saw this as a new definition of Moscow's mission. But this task is extremely difficult.
Read also: NYT: The battle for Donbas will be “extremely fierce”
The new southern front stretches for 400 kilometers from Donetsk to Nikolaev, equal to the distance from New York to Niagara Falls on the border with Canada. Russian forces are better off here with supplies from the occupied Crimea. And they seem stronger than those focused on Donbass. But Ukraine's strong resistance also stopped them. Moscow suffered the biggest losses last week closer to the Russian border near Kharkiv. Despite heavy artillery shelling and air strikes on residential neighborhoods, the Ukrainian Armed Forces-controlled perimeter around the city has only expanded. Ukraine was also able to liberate a number of towns and villages in the Kharkiv region, said the head of the regional administration Oleg Sinegubov. According to US intelligence, Russia has already given up its intention to capture Kharkiv, just as it did in the battle for Kyiv.
Experts say the main issue is the density of forces on the battlefield. That is, how many units can Russia assemble and force to work together. In almost two months of war, Putin's army has shown a weak ability to coordinate the efforts of individual combat groups or to command large formations. The logistical problems of the Russian military's lack of ammunition, fuel and even food have not been resolved. The environmental factor also does not play into Russia's hands. Demoralization also remains a problem.
So at the beginning of the second week of the so-called second phase of the war against Ukraine, Russian forces were again divided between the northern, southern and eastern fronts around Donbass. Meanwhile, fighting in Mariupol continues. In addition, some forces are now thinly stretched along the 400-kilometer front in the south. Newsweek does not rule out that in the next two weeks Putin will be able to make some limited progress in the Donbass to be able to declare victory on May 9. But in general, the situation on the ground is quite gloomy for him. Therefore, in order to continue the war, he will have to resort to the second scenario after the Victory Day, namely to declare a general mobilization in Russia.
fighting, it is unlikely to be a successful national mobilization, “an unnamed Pentagon official told the newspaper.
Read also: Focus: Russia has too little strength to fight for Donbas
However, last week experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds said in a report that instead of using May 9 to declare “victory”, the Russian government is likely to use the holiday to transformation of the “special operation” into the officially declared “war”.
“Without a nationwide mobilization, I think the battle for Donbas will be the last major offensive that the Russian army is capable of, given its current state and available forces. Whether they succeed in Donbass or not, the Russian army will be exhausted in terms of offensive potential, “said Michael Coffman, director of Russia's research program at the Washington-based Center for Naval Analysis.
Mariupol Defense Ukraine has also exhausted many Russian units and reduced their combat capability, British military intelligence said.
Faced with fierce rebuff in Ukraine, the Kremlin abandoned the plan to seize Kyiv and put its puppet government there. Moscow announced that from the very beginning its main goal was to reach the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as to create a land corridor from the Crimea to the Donbas. What are the prospects for the invaders in the near future told Tatiana Silina in the article “Battle for Donbas: why Putin should lose”?
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