The consequences of the attack on our country can vary from global stagflation to World War III.
Historian, writer and journalist Neil Ferguson considers the worst scenarios for the course and end of the war waged and waged by Russia in Ukraine . He writes that most conflicts end quickly. But it seems that this may take a long time. And its consequences will range from global stagflation to World War III. Ferguson writes about this in his column for Bloomberg.
The historian suggests considering the worst-case scenarios.
Read also: Ukraine can win the war with Russia, according to the Pentagon
I have argued that today's global situation is more reminiscent of the 1970s than any other recent historical period. We are in something like the Cold War. We already had a problem with inflation. The war in Ukraine is similar to the attack on Israel in 1973 or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The economic impact of the war on food and energy prices poses a risk of stagflation.
But let's say it's not 1979, it's 1939, according to historian Sean McMichan. Of course, the situation in Ukraine is much better than in Poland in 1939. Weapons from the West are arriving in Ukraine. She did not reach Poland after the invasion of Nazi Germany. Ukraine faced only Russian aggression, while Poland was divided between Hitler and Stalin.
But on the other hand, if we consider the Second World War as a combination of several wars, the parallel becomes more plausible. The United States and its allies must consider not one, but three geopolitical crises that may soon follow one another, just as the war in Eastern Europe was preceded by the war between Japan and China, followed by Hitler's war against Western Europe in 1949. . If China invades Taiwan next year and starts a war between Iran and its regional enemies – the Arab states and Israel – then we should probably be talking about the Third World War, not the Second Cold War…
March 22 suggested that the outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine depends on the answer to seven questions. Now is the time to update the answers.
- Will the Russians be able to capture Kyiv and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in two, three, four weeks or never? Looks like the answer is “never.”
Although the Kremlin has probably only temporarily withdrawn its forces from Kyiv, there is little doubt that the plans have changed. At a briefing on March 25, the generals stated that they had never aimed to capture Kyiv or Kharkiv, and that attacks in these areas were allegedly aimed at deterring and weakening Ukrainian forces. And Russia's real goal was and remains to gain control over Donbass.
This is similar to rationalizing the heavy losses that the Russians have suffered since the beginning of the invasion. In any case, we will soon see whether Putin's army will be able to achieve this already limited goal of encircling Ukrainian troops in the Donbas and possibly securing a “land bridge” from Russia to the Crimea. We can only say that this will be a long and bloody process, as shown by the fierce battle near Mariupol.
- Will sanctions lead to such a serious economic downturn in Russia that Putin will not be able to win?
The Russian economy has undoubtedly suffered from Western restrictions, but I still believe that it has not been hit hard enough to stop the war. While the German government insists on an embargo on Russian oil exports, Putin is still getting enough hard currency to keep his military economy afloat.
- Is the military and the economic crisis, a palace coup against Putin?
As I claimed two weeks ago, the Biden administration is betting on regime change in Moscow. Ever since I wrote this, it has become even more obvious. Biden's government has not only called Putin a war criminal and prosecuted those responsible for war crimes in Ukraine. At the end of his speech in Warsaw, Biden exclaimed, “For God's sake, this man cannot stay in power!”… I have no doubt that the United States and at least some of its European allies are trying to get rid of Putin.
- Will the risk of Putin falling to desperate measures (including the threat of nuclear weapons)?
Now this is the crucial question. Biden and his advisers seem surprisingly convinced that the depletion of forces in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia will lead to a political crisis in Moscow comparable to that which led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. But Putin is unlike the despots of the Middle East who lost power during the Iraq war and the Arab Spring. He already has weapons of mass destruction, including the world's largest arsenal of nuclear warheads, as well as chemical and, of course, biological weapons.
Those who unequivocally proclaim Ukraine's victory seem to forget that the worse things are for Russia in conventional wars, the more likely it is that Putin will use chemical or small nuclear weapons. Remember: since 2014, its goal has been to prevent Ukraine from becoming a stable, Western-oriented democracy integrated into Western institutions such as NATO and the EU. With each passing day of death, destruction, and forced displacement, he can believe that he is achieving this goal: an abandoned crypt, not a free Ukraine.
More importantly, he believes that the United States and its allies , and if Ukraine attacks targets inside Russia, it will be more inclined to escalate the conflict than to gently resign.
Those who reject the risk of World War III forget that during the Cold War, NATO could not expect to win a regular war with the Soviet Union, so it had tactical nuclear weapons ready to be launched against the Red Army if it entered Western Europe. Today, Russia has no chance in a normal war with NATO. That is why Putin has tactical nuclear weapons ready to be launched in the event of a NATO attack.
what else but the collapse of the Russian Federation. ” On March 16, Putin declared that the West was waging a “war of economic, political, and informational means” of “comprehensive and undisguised nature.”
- Will China keep Putin afloat if he agrees to the compromise he offers as a mediator?
Today it is clear that Chinese authorities will side with Russia, but not enough to provoke secondary US sanctions on Chinese institutions. I no longer expect China to play the role of peacemaker.
- Will we have a lack of attention syndrome?
I want to say that it started after a four-week news series, when Will Smith slapped Chris Rock at the Oscars. But the more subtle answer is that in the coming months, Western public support for Ukraine will be seen in rising food and fuel prices, combined with the notion that Ukraine will win the war, not just lose it.
- What is the concomitant damage?
There is a serious problem of escalating inflation in the world. The longer this war lasts, the more serious the threat of stagflation (high inflation with low, zero or negative economic growth) will be. This problem will be more serious in countries that depend on Ukraine and Russia not only for energy and grain, but also for fertilizers, whose prices have doubled as a result of the war. Anyone who thinks that this will not have serious adverse social and political consequences does not know history.
So what's next? This is a question I hear all the time. Most wars are short. According to an article by Scott Bennett and Allan Stem, published in 1996, the average war between 1816 and 1985 lasted 15 months. More than half of the wars in the sample lasted less than six months and about a quarter less than two. Less than a quarter lasted more than two years. Therefore, there is a chance that the war in Ukraine will end relatively soon.
Given that Russia is struggling to win even a limited victory in Ukraine, Putin is unlikely to escalate, which could lead to a wider conflict. A ceasefire seems likely, say, in early May, as at this point the Russians will either reach the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the Donbas or fail. In any case, they need to give their soldiers a break.
But it will take much longer to achieve peace. With each passing day of Ukrainian confrontation, positions seem to be strengthening, especially on territorial issues. But I may well allow a ceasefire that is not stable, and it will take longer than expected. It also means that sanctions against Russia will continue, even if they do not become tougher.
Putin's fall will definitely make a lasting peace in Ukraine more likely.
See special topic: CNN: The Battle of Slavyansk could be a turning point in Russia's war against Ukraine If the Ukrainian army does not allow Russian troops to capture Slovyansk, Moscow's strategy of capturing the entire Donbass could be put an end to. An international logistics company is suing Russia over the letter Z The ZAMMLER statement said their Z logo is now associated with war crimes and death. Zelensky: “Greece can help carry out humanitarian mission to save Mariupol residents” The President thanked Greece for providing defense and humanitarian aid to Ukraine and supporting sanctions against Russia. The fiercest fighting continues in the south-west of Luhansk region and in the environmental protection zone – Arestovych The adviser to the head of the presidential office noted that of the nine operational areas at the beginning of the war there were 2.5. Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel left the hall during a briefing of Israeli Foreign and Defense Ministers They called Russia's invasion of Ukraine a “conflict” and discussed Israel's ties with both parties.
