Former German Ambassador to Russia Rüdiger von Fritsch in his book analyzed the scenarios for ending Putin's war with Ukraine.
The diplomat spent 5 years in Moscow. He knows how Putin started the war with Ukraine and dared to suggest 4 scenarios for its completion in his book “Changing Ages: Putin's War and Its Consequences”. Below is a summary of the main theses of the book, published in DW.
If Ukraine Wins
The first scenario considered in the book is the victory of Ukraine in the war with Russia. Analyzing it, the former German ambassador recalls the weaknesses of the Russian army, which became apparent after the invasion of Ukraine, and quotes Russian military expert Alexander Goltz: “Seeming dangerous is cheaper than being dangerous.” In this scenario, it is weaknesses in Russia's planning, command, and failure to modernize the army could lead to failure.
In this regard, von Fritsch noted that the costs of modernizing Russia's ground forces, those that take a major part in the war against Ukraine, recently occupying only the seventh line in the total expenditures on the Russian army, giving way to expenditures on nuclear weapons, air defense, strengthening cyber troops and others.
The precondition for Ukraine's victory should be the transition to positional warfare and the stagnation of hostilities, as well as the fatigue of Russia's offensive forces, von Fritsch said. If Ukrainian troops manage to push the Russian army back to pre-war positions, it is possible that President Zelensky will declare that Ukraine will take into account the fact that Crimea and part of Donbass remain out of Kyiv's control, not recognizing the alienation of these territories. Ukraine, having secured quite significant security guarantees from international mediators.
If the scenario of Ukraine's victory is realized, von Fritz writes, Ukraine will fully retain its statehood and sovereign right to join unions, such as the European Union, and will set reparations to Russia for damages.
Another scenario: Russia's victory
The second scenario of Russia's military invasion, which is being analyzed by a diplomat and former deputy head of the BND, Germany's foreign intelligence service, is the Kremlin's victory in Ukraine. It could be a “victory at any cost” , the German diplomat suggested, using the most destructive weapons and without any mercy towards the civilian population of Ukraine. Exhausted by the hardships of war, Ukrainians may be ready to surrender in despair to “stop senseless bloodshed.”
Russia, von Fritsch suggested, would be able to create a land corridor between Crimea and the so-called “people's republics” in eastern Ukraine and, consequently, with Russia. Putin will either annex the occupied territories to Russia or declare their independence from Kyiv, and will continue to threaten the territory of Ukraine that will remain independent of Moscow. Victory over Ukraine will allow him again, if the war develops in favor of the Kremlin, will think about achieving far-reaching geostrategic goals, von Fritsch suggested.
Pat: Ukraine and Russia can not overcome each other
As another possible scenario for the development of the war, Rüdiger von Fritsch considers the emergence of a stalemate. The Russian military was able to defeat Ukraine in principle, but the country's defense and civilian resistance, on the one hand, and Western sanctions, on the other, forced Vladimir Putin to tell his home audience that the situation on the front should be seen as Russia's victory. In fact, it could be a “freezing of the conflict”, when a significant part of the Russian army would remain on the territory of Ukraine, and the escalation could occur again at any moment.
Such a state would mean the possibility of resuming negotiations, but with the loss of both sides. Russia would probably recognize the independence of Ukraine and its leadership, the parties would renounce some of the mutual demands, and would recognize that differences over Donbass and Crimea remain for many years. But “in fact, such a situation would be in Russia's favor,” von Fritz writes, as agreements on reparations and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory could hardly be reached, and Ukraine would remain under constant threat of a new Russian attack.
Scenario of escalation of the conflict: the risk of a nuclear strike in Russia
As the last possible scenario, the German diplomat considers the “scenario of escalation of the conflict.” It refers to the most destructive war, as well as Russia's use of tactical nuclear weapons in order to achieve the desired result. “The word 'tactical' may sound less terrifying than it is,” von Fritsch added, recalling that “modern tactical nuclear weapons can far outweigh the destructive effects of a bomb on Hiroshima.”
The former ambassador is probably mistaken in claiming that Russia's military doctrine allows the use of nuclear weapons if other goals fail to achieve military objectives. There are no such words in the Russian military doctrine, but the threats from Moscow are accurately conveyed in the book: not only senior Russian officials have repeatedly threatened nuclear weapons, but leading Russian state television said that a nuclear strike by Russia could be Ukraine.
Developments with nuclear, biological or chemical weapons from Russia could force NATO countries to step up their involvement in the conflict, such as creating a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which would inevitably lead to a direct confrontation with Ukraine. Russia. It is unlikely that Vladimir Putin could want such an escalation of the conflict, concludes von Fritsch.
Mistakes of the West and “Putin overturned the chessboard”
Subsequent chapters of the book are for those looking for fresh arguments in the long-standing debate over the role of NATO enlargement in growing tensions between the West and Russia: here von Fritsch has much to offer. Part of the book is an analysis of the mistakes made by the West after the end of the Cold War, which, together with Russia, had “a more purposeful search for a way to build a common security structure on the European continent.” In his opinion, the attempts themselves were correct, although they did not lead to anything. “Still, it was right to constantly seek contact with Russia, not to reject it and not to hide from it. Yes, Vladimir Putin overturned the chessboard, but this does not mean that the rules of chess or the chess moves themselves are to blame,” Von wrote. Fritsch.
He also regrets that the West was in no hurry to realize that Russia's war against Ukraine began in 2014, when armed men seized the Crimean parliament. “Looking back, we can say that The West had to respond with much tougher measures to Russia's grave violation of international law, “the diplomat said.” Many opportunities to give Ukraine more resources to defend against Russian aggression have been lost, “he said. If it were able to defend itself against a Russian attack, Russia might abandon it altogether in 2022, “Fritsch said.
Fritsch is no less critical of the pre-war debate in Germany. He recalls that the supply of any weapons, even defense weapons, to Ukraine was not so much a necessity as a provocation against Moscow. Habeck), after he visited the line of contact in Donbass in 2021 and demanded to help Kyiv strengthen its defense capabilities.
Read also: Chancellor of Germany considers his policy towards Ukraine correct
< p>In general, according to von Fritsch, Germany lived in an outdated paradigm, considering the supply of weapons to hotspots taboo and ending public debates a “deadly” argument that such a principle stems from “our history” – meaning, of course, the time of national rule. socialists and World War II. “It took a hard landing in a horrible reality to change that,” von Fritsch wrote.
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