If earlier the Russians themselves decided in which direction to transfer the main offensive forces, now they are guided by the counteroffensive actions of the Armed Forces.
Ukraine gradually intercepts the strategic initiative at the front and forces Russians to change the plans of their operations, reacting to a possible counteroffensive of the Armed Forces. It seems that soon the initiative will finally pass to the Ukrainians. Experts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) made such a forecast in their report on August 4.
Experts noted that the Russians are increasingly transferring personnel and equipment to the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, refusing to seize Sloviansk and Siversk in Donetsk region. They also previously suspended attacks on Kharkiv or the south in order to capture the Luhansk region. However, now the nature of such reassessments of priorities has changed radically, experts believe. In this case, it seems that the Russian forces are responding to the threat of Ukraine's counteroffensive in the Kherson region, rather than consciously choosing the targets on which to focus their efforts,” the Institute's report says.
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From this, experts conclude that the initiative at the front is gradually passing into the hands of Ukrainians.
“Ukraine's preparations for a counteroffensive in Kherson and initial operations in this counteroffensive, combined with a sharp weakening of Russian forces in general, allow Ukraine to begin actively shaping the course of the war for the first time,” the report says.
They also assume: if the situation develops according to such a scenario, the Russians simply will not have enough strength to maintain the defense of such a long front and will have to make territorial sacrifices, as they call it, to make gains, as they call it, to make “goodwill gestures.” For example, it is assumed that the Russians will be forced to withdraw their garrisons from Izyum in order to defend themselves in the south.
Read also: The tempo of the offensive of Russian troops will fall: the expert made a forecast for the development of the situation in Donbas
Let us remind you, as Bloomberg wrote, after the operational pause, the purpose of which was to regroup and replenish troops, Russia was never able to restore its offensive potential. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden, Carl Bildt, reported that the Russian occupying forces were able to take control of another 0.02% of the territory of Ukraine already after this pause.
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“This is unacceptable, of course, but this result can hardly be called impressive,” he noted.
See special topic: In the morning, the occupiers shelled Mykolaiv with Pion long-range artillery – the head of the OVA. The Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed four air defense systems of the Russians: the “South” air defense complex reported on the enemy's losses during the day The defenders repelled all attempts to assault the Rashists. The actions of the Russian military undermined the safety of the Zaporizhzhia NPP – British Ministry of Defence The Russian Federation uses the “protected status” of the NPP to reduce the risk to its equipment and personnel. Destroyed houses and abandoned equipment: defenders liberated the village of Dibrivne in Kharkiv Oblast Before the Russians left, they replaced it with anti-personnel and anti-tank mines. The occupiers are using all available weapons to push the Ukrainian defenders out of their positions – Gaidai The head of the Luhansk OVA reported that the enemy is trying to create conditions for an attack on the Ukrainian cities of Donetsk oblast
