It seems that back in July, the organization's experts were counting on the growth of world GDP.
The IMF warns that due to Russia's war in Ukraine, the world will begin to feel the economic recession from next year. This is stated in the preface to the “World Economic Outlook” report, which the International Monetary Fund published as of October 2022.
“Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, powerfully destabilizing the global economy. The senseless destruction of lives and livelihoods outside of hostilities has led to a serious energy crisis in Europe, sharply increasing the cost of living and complicating economic activity,” the IMF notes.
Inflation, as well as the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic, will have a key impact on the development of world GDP next year.
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“More than a third of the world economy will shrink this year or next year. In short, the worst is yet to come for many,” the IMF emphasizes .
For comparison: in July, the experts of the organization expected the growth of world GDP by 2.9%. However, in the Eurozone this indicator will be only 0.5%.
Now the IMF is drawing attention to the unreliability of the current forecast: after all, the future of the world economy depends on the monetary policy of central banks, the flow the war in Ukraine and the further consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, for China.
Recession, according to experts, awaits Italy next year. Its GDP will decrease by 0.2%, according to the document. As for Germany, its economy, according to the IMF, will grow by 1.5% in 2022 and lose 0.3% in 2023.
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Ukraine's GDP will decrease by 35% this year, the report says. IMF economists do not give a forecast for the Ukrainian economy for 2023, explaining it by “a high degree of uncertainty”.
And, for example, the economy of Belarus in 2022 will fall by only 7 %, but a year later it will increase slightly – by 0.2%.
Inflation, according to IMF calculations, will reach a peak of 9.5% in the III quarter of 2022. However, by 2024, consumer price growth will drop to 4.1%.
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Meanwhile, according to the IMF, the US economy will grow in 2022 by 1, 6%, and in 2023 – by 1%.
