Devaluation jumps aimed at 50 hryvnias per dollar and euro are predicted not only in the negative scenario.
Ukraine will have serious problems on the foreign exchange market, burning its reserves, if the amount of international financial aid is not increased in the near future. Andriy Shevchyshyn, head of the analytical department of Libertex Group, told Apostrophe about this.
“If we continue on the path we are on now, and external support will be at the same levels, then the exchange rate of 50 hryvnias/dollar is a very real benchmark by the end of this year. If negative trends are maintained, the exchange rate (in 2023) may go to 60 hryvnias/dollar and even higher,” Shevchyshyn voiced his opinion.
The analyst added that his forecast is pessimistic and realistic, but it is not aimed at provoking panic in society.
According to him, the $3 billion that the USA announced on Ukraine's Independence Day was a positive moment, but this amount is not enough to strengthen the Ukrainian budget.
In the same time, the analyst of the “Center of Exchange Technologies” (CBT) Maksym Oryshchak noted that in the current situation, macro indicators are very conditional and it is difficult to predict what will happen to the dollar exchange rate even in 2023.
“It is simply impossible to more or less accurately predict the exchange rate for the next year (and even for the end of the current year). The same applies to all other macroeconomic indicators,” Oryshchak emphasized.
The analyst believes that in 2022 we should not expect a jump in the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine even to 42 hryvnias. According to Oryshchak, the National Bank has now focused its efforts on curbing devaluation, due to which there is no longer a high demand for currency from businesses and the population.
The expert is sure that if the full-scale war ends, and the Cabinet of Ministers takes a course to restore and stabilize the economy, the dollar rate will not rise to the 50 UAH/$ mark.
“But if the war is not ended, default is not allowed to come, then at the time of payments for international loans, which are possible at the expense of attracting new loans, or at the expense of gold and currency reserves, we will observe devaluation jumps with an aim of 50 hryvnias per dollar and euro”, – concluded Oryshchak, voicing the currency forecast.
We remind you that the Ministry of Finance, which is working on the draft state budget for next year, does not say what exchange rate of the hryvnia will be included in it , but they say that no shocks are planned.
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At the same time, according to the macroeconomic forecast of the Cabinet of Ministers< /strong> In 2023, the exchange rate of the US dollar in Ukraine may be 50 hryvnias. This is reported by the mass media with references to sources in the government.
