The situation may stabilize in a week or two, and Ukrainians should focus on world prices.
Fuel shortages have intensified again, and prices are rising despite government regulation. Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 Consulting Group and energy expert, spoke about what is happening in the oil products market.
The deficit continues. On the one hand, there are no queues for gas stations, although on the other – many stations across the country are idle, and operating stations do not have the full range and produce only 20 liters. and fully provided – security forces and municipalities. Why is there a shortage? “, – writes the expert.
The first reason, in his opinion, lies in the destruction of the occupiers of the only incumbent in Ukraine Kremenchug refinery.
Read also: The occupiers bombed two refineries in Ukraine, one working – destroyed
“In March, the main task was to find resources in Europe, most of the market was closed by Kremenchuk. Since the beginning of April, there is no plant, imported resources are contracted, but now importers have another task – to bring fuel,” – said Kuyun.
At the same time, Europe is facing an unexpected problem.
“There are no extra tanks and locomotives in Europe. Moreover, the situation came as a surprise to Europeans themselves: it turned out that cars from one country can not always move on the neighbors' railway due to additional technical requirements,” said the expert.
On the positive side – automobile imports intensified, expanding the geography, for the first time since independence.
“To understand the comprehensiveness of the search for resources by Ukrainians – for the first time (in my memory) the import of gasoline from Germany. Spoiler – we are waiting for a product from the Netherlands and Belgium, “- says Kuyun.
However, this positive pulls there are problems in logistics.
“You drive a lot of cars. The voltage on all types of fuel, but on diesel it looks the greatest. Demand from farmers also spoke. Although by all indications it is less than expected. I do not know cases where someone could not buy fuel or to According to the expert, there are queues of fuel trucks.
Regarding prices, the Government continues state regulation, which, according to Serhiy Kuyun, has the opposite effect due to the deficit.
“There is a set price, but there is no product. Like in a Soviet store. Let's hope that we just don't know everything, and the government knows more and does what is necessary. The most alarming situation is with the SOE, but in recent days it has reappeared. bentega and on gasoline “, – he noted.
The positive side of this process is that a mini-refinery product has appeared on the market due to a shortage.
“Not very much and not very high quality, but thank you for that. Especially since the “small oil refineries” are forced to add bioethanol of our production to increase the octane, which is good, “the expert stressed.
There is still a problem with autogas./p>
“Gas has become a ghost: that is, no. The price creeps up to the price of gasoline. On the good side – imports of autogas began to decline steadily, increasing slightly. From the exotic – American LPG! Someone is already riding on the molecules of freedom,” – says Kuyun. p>
In the group, the price of diesel starts at 39.5 (marginal “government” price for gas stations, – ed.) and ends at 44 UAH/liter. There are few suggestions.
Non-system stations exceed the maximum “government” price, according to the expert.
“They started to score on restrictions, they even reported about 45 UAH/l. However, without restrictions on the capacity. A real market manifestation,” – said the expert.
According to Kuyun, this situation can last up to two weeks.
“There is hope that in a week or two seasonal demand will” creep up “a bit and become a little easier,” he said.
” On the other hand, people return, Kyiv comes to life, gets stuck in traffic, burns precious fuel, including the above-mentioned “freedom molecules”… When the product is available, it is strange to talk about the price forecast. However, we remain focused on world prices, which, although still fluctuating, seem to have found a corridor. The market is more oil. Until then, we expect increased production by the United States and other countries with high costs of hydrocarbon production, “- said the expert.
