Bad news for Ukrainian employers, but good news for people.
The revival of the Ukrainian economy – gradual this year, and fantastic next year , amid labor shortages and a competitive labor market in Europe will force Ukrainian employers to start raising wages very soon, and next year – increase at an irrational pace. This opinion was voiced by the famous Ukrainian economist Mykhailo Kukhar.
The expert stressed that the downturn in Ukraine's economy should end in the second quarter of 2022. From the third quarter there will be relief, in particular, it can be seen in wages, which after a reduction of almost half, will begin to rise sharply.
Today, according to him, Ukrainians are still getting poorer as prices rise and wages do not change. This is felt by both Ukrainians who have savings in dollars and those who keep income in hryvnia.
This situation is associated with several factors:
- projected price increase in Ukraine by 20%;
- unprecedented number of migrants who exported $ 3 billion.
However, according to him, no matter how much the Ukrainian economy fell, below $ 400 the average salary in Ukraine will not fall today.
“There are debates among my fellow macroeconomists over whether GDP will fall by 30, 35 or 50 percent this year. These are sad figures, and it is not our fault if we even fall on these figures. But our economic models show that there is no There is a direct correlation between falling GDP and dollar wages in Ukraine. Wages are falling more slowly. Entrepreneurs need to climb into their reserves, but maintain a more or less decent level of wages, “he said.
This will also contribute to labor shortages.
“There will be a labor shortage in Ukraine due to the fact that 5-6 million highly skilled workers have left for the European Union, where they automatically got the right to work. The current unemployment is temporary. This is bad news for Ukrainian employers, but good news for people, “Mykhailo Kuhar said.
According to him, the worst forecast for the level of falling wages indicates that they will not fall below $ 400, even in wartime. But then the processes of galloping wage growth will begin. It was $ 925 (UAH 27,000) and we don't expect the average salary to fall to $ 400 (UAH 11.8 thousand). that next to us the competing European Union and Ukrainian employers simply will not have such luxury to lower the level of wages “, – the economist noted.
We will remind, according to Mikhail Kukhar, In 2023-2025, Ukraine will receive fantastic economic infusions that it has never had before – at least $ 200 billion, which will be provided from the seized Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves. This will lead to “fantastic growth in living standards and irrationally inflated wages in Ukraine.”
