Despite the Russian muscle game, the United States and its allies believe that the use of such weapons will be too risky for Moscow.
“Just one start, Boris, and England no, ”a Russian TV presenter threatened earlier this week in the wake of a video showing nuclear weapons destroying Britain and Ireland .
The alarming video went viral on social media and quickly provoked criticism in the West, which was called a provocative exaggeration. This was one of the latest episodes of escalating Moscow's Russian rhetoric about the possible use of nuclear weapons in response to the West's help to Ukraine, the Financial Times reported. In February, Vladimir Putin made the world nervous when he ordered a nuclear force ready for combat. This was a signal of readiness to use such weapons. Last week, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with Russia's state television: “The threat of a Russian nuclear strike is serious and real. We must not underestimate it. “
But despite all the threats and the fact that Russia does have the world's largest nuclear arsenal, none of the West's spies or analysts believe that Moscow will indeed deliver such a catastrophic blow as it showed on state television this week. The real question is whether Putin will use less tactical nuclear weapons to gain an advantage on the battlefield in Ukraine.
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“Given the potential desperation of Putin and the Russian leadership, as well as the military failures they have faced, none of us can take lightly the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons or low-charge nuclear weapons,” said CIA Director Bill Barnes in the past. months.
However, he added that “so far we have not seen practical evidence of the deployment of such forces, which could increase concern.” Western officials and analysts say Russia understands that the cost of using any type of nuclear weapon will be unacceptably high. Therefore, all the threats are just a pose aimed at restraining the United States and its allies from interfering in the Russian war against Ukraine.
“They have so many problems because of what is happening in Donbas. They do not have the strength or time to deal with the escalation of the conflict with NATO or escalation, because they know very well that our response will be strong, “an unnamed European official told the newspaper.
In the first year of the Biden administration, Leonor Tomero worked at the Pentagon, where she studied nuclear policy. According to her, Russia's use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine “galvanizes the whole world” against Russia. If civilians are affected, there will be a “strong demand” that the United States intervene militarily.
“We do not want them to miscalculate. We need to make it clear that the consequences will be devastating, “said Tomero.
The Financial Times writes that Western fears of a Russian nuclear strike have dissipated. Therefore, the United States and its allies are stepping up military aid to Kyiv by sending heavy weapons to the Armed Forces. In February, the Biden administration set up a working group called Tiger to develop plans in case chemical, biological or nuclear weapons continue to be used. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Washington has not changed its position on nuclear weapons or the level of alarm for its troops or allies. However, US officials and analysts do not rule out the possibility that Russia may dare to use short- and medium-range nuclear weapons against Ukraine, given that its army is defeated on the battlefield.
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“They have invested so much in a diverse arsenal of nuclear weapons out of boredom. Everything will depend on Russian calculations of price and benefits. Now the focus should be on informing the Russians that the price will be much higher than any benefit they expect after using nuclear weapons of any power. Even if it happens on an empty field, “said Hudson Institute expert Rebecca Heinrichs.
Although US officials want Moscow to know that it will face dire consequences of a nuclear strike, the deterrent strategy, paradoxically, is not to say exactly what the price will be. This was stated by Scott Sagan, a professor of political science at Stanford University, who previously worked at the Pentagon.
People are trying to go beyond the old thinking of the Cold War in the spirit of “eye for an eye”. They are trying to figure out how to convince the Russians that such a step would be unacceptable and extremely dangerous, but so that it does not lead to automatic escalation, “Sagan said.
It will be recalled that on April 26, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that “the risks of using nuclear weapons” are “very significant”, “the danger is serious, it is real, it should not be underestimated.” He reminded that the principle position of the “nuclear five” states is the inadmissibility of the use of nuclear weapons, noting that “we should never allow the Third World War.”
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that if the Russian leadership does not lose touch with reality and adequacy, it will not use nuclear weapons . He said he did not want to believe that this could happen.
