The lack of progress in the peace talks and the new offensive suggest that the Kremlin may turn its “special operation” into a “war” against the West.
Russia failed to break Ukraine's defense, suffered heavy losses and suffered numerous military defeats. But the Kremlin continues to say that the goals of Vladimir Putin's invasion will be fully achieved.
Russia's territorial goals appear to be changing depending on what Putin believes his army can win in the short term. The initial plan, which included capturing Kyiv, was reduced to a new offensive focused on Donbass. But Russia's goals, namely to end Ukrainian statehood, remain unchanged, according to participants in the Moscow-Kiev talks. This means that Putin is ready for a long-lasting conflict, the goals of which go far beyond the declared “liberation” of Donbass, – writes the Financial Times.
Russian autocrat now wants to capture the entire southeast of Ukraine to cut it off from the Black sea and create a platform for further attacks.
“He is a tactician – a judoka – he wants to make a reception and throw the opponent over his shoulder. He is not sensible, in his head a very distorted picture of the world. And the scenarios have changed. An appetite comes while eating, “an unnamed participant in the Russian-Ukrainian talks told the newspaper.
One Russian oligarch told the Financial Times that the war would continue until Putin could win at home.
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“If it is not possible to make the electorate look victorious, it will not be possible to save face,” he explained.
Russia seems to have drawn some conclusions after numerous mistakes at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. This led to the redeployment of forces to Donbas and the appointment of a single field commander.
Read also: Russia has not made a significant breakthrough in Donbass – British intelligence
But Putin's views on the situation on the ground seem to be distorted by inaccurate reports from the battlefield, as well as state propaganda. Russian military analyst Pavel Luzin said the exact data was not passed up the chain of command. This will continue to undermine the Russian offensive. So the aggressor will have to stop fighting at some point next month.
“It's a huge hierarchy. And when a lower-level analyst writes a report on what's really going on, that document goes through 10 bosses. And when it finally comes up, it says that everything is fine. This is how this system works. They need a break just to figure out what they have. They do not know how many contractors they have left, they do not know the full extent of their losses. How much equipment is left and in what condition it is, “Luzin said.
Given that Russia needs to regroup, Ukrainian officials thought Putin would look for a way to declare victory by May 9. But there are not so many military achievements. And peace talks are not moving forward. So there are signs that the Kremlin is preparing for a protracted conflict that it will see as an indirect war against the West. This month, Putin said that “the most important thing today is not the tragic events in Ukraine, but the destruction of the unipolar system that was created after the fall of the Soviet Union.” The rhetoric of state propaganda has also changed. As there have been no major victories so far, TV presenters have accused the West of lacking progress and supporting Ukraine. Some of them occasionally call for a nuclear strike on Western countries, praising the recent Sarmat missile tests and quoting Putin, who in 2018 spoke of the nuclear destruction of the world, explaining: “Why do we need a world without Russia?” .
To achieve a breakthrough at the front, Russia needs to significantly increase the number of soldiers so that they can defend valuable equipment. And for this you need to attract conscripts, reservists or mobilize volunteers. And for all this, the Kremlin will have to admit that it is waging a full-scale war, not some “special operation” there.
“And if you go to war, then you need to explain to your people what you are doing and why their self-sacrifice is worth it. As things are going very badly and Russia's forces are extremely depleted, we will have to explain to society why all these losses, “said Jack Watling, senior researcher at the Royal Institute of United Services (RUSI).
Read also: The Economist: The war in Ukraine does not have a good end for Russia
The publication writes that the offensive in Donbass may be a prelude to escalation of the conflict. Russian General Rustam Minnekayev recently described plans to capture the entire south of Ukraine. He also allowed a possible attack on Moldova. This suggests that Russia is preparing for a long war of attrition against what is left of Ukraine. And in Moscow's eyes, this is part of a broader geopolitical conflict.
“Everything points to the fact that we are now at war with the whole world, as in the time of the Patriotic War, when all of Europe, the whole world was against us. And now again. They never liked Russia, “Minnekayev said.
His analogy seems absurd. Because the United States and European allies fought against Nazi Germany together with the USSR. However, his words indicate that the war in Ukraine is only “an episode of greater confrontation with the West,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R. Politik think tank.
, Russia will dig. And everything will not be limited to Ukraine. This does not mean that Russia will try to conquer Moldova or the Baltic states. But it can escalate through gunfire, various weapons tests, and possibly even the use of weapons, “she said.
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