Putin has invaded Ukraine to restore Russia's status as a great power, but the paradox is that in order to maintain this status, it is necessary to refrain from wars.
Vladimir Putin is not the only one who misjudged the situation . The Russian autocrat thought that his army would be able to conquer Ukraine in a few days. And such beliefs were quite common. At the same time, intelligence agencies in the West, which had predicted Russia's invasion, believed that Putin would be able to win quickly.
But the war has been going on for three months. Russian army stopped and bears heavy losses, writes the Financial Times. Russia's international isolation is growing, and Finland and Sweden are preparing to join NATO. The incompetence of the Russian army has become a hot topic for discussion. But perhaps Russia's failures do not need much explanation. Nowadays, when big powers decide to invade smaller countries, they usually lose.
America has lost in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, and has humiliatingly retreated after smaller military interventions in Somalia and Lebanon. The Soviet Union was defeated in Afghanistan. And Russia is now failing in Ukraine.
“This is one of the biggest mysteries of international politics: despite all the negative experience of asymmetric wars, great powers still think they can win,” said Indian scholar Pratap Bhanu.
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The only country that has resisted the temptation to go to war for the past 40 years is China. Beijing got its teeth into it when it invaded Vietnam in 1979. Since then, he has wisely stayed away from wars. Focusing on economic development, China has changed its economy and society, becoming the most powerful country in the world after the United States. In recent years, however, the Chinese government and people have shown signs of readiness to go to the battlefield. China has poured a lot of money into its army. Threatening military exercises have emerged near Taiwan. War films have become very popular in China.
“But Russia's experience in Ukraine says that China will make a catastrophic mistake if it is tempted to stage a small victorious war. When guns start firing, very seldom does everything go according to plan, “the article reads. who took the first step, “said historian Adam Tuz.
People and nations defending their homes are usually more motivated than an invading army. Russia's reputation as a military force was based on successes in defending against the aggression of Napoleon and Hitler. But now Russia is the aggressor. And Ukrainians play the role of heroic defenders of their homeland, which the Russians played in 1812 and 1942. As a country struggling to survive, Ukraine has been able to close its borders to all adult men and mobilize forces. Russia is still forced to fool its people that the so-called “special operation” is underway, which does not require mobilization. The longer the war lasts, the worse it becomes for the invading army. Even if we occupy the capital, as the Americans did in Iraq and Afghanistan, we will have to deal with resistance supported by external forces.
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Losing the war causes corrosion at home as well. More than 15,000 American soldiers have died in the wars against Afghanistan and Iraq. Twice as many died as a result of suicide. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers were wounded, and the consequences were felt by the entire society and political sphere of the country.
There is a small exception to the rule of the great defeat of great powers in the war against smaller ones. It applies to cases where the goal is clearly limited. If the conflict in Ukraine was really a “special operation,” as Putin insists, then success is possible. In 1991, during the Gulf War, the US-led coalition limited itself to expelling Saddam Hussein's troops from Kuwait. When Washington tried to go much further during the second invasion of Iraq to overthrow Saddam's regime and occupy the country, the plan failed. NATO's successful intervention in Kosovo in 1999 was based on the Air Force and had a limited goal of supporting Kosovars.
Changes in military technology further reduce the chances of victory for the invading party. Information technology and drones can clearly track the movement of aggressor forces. And then high-precision missiles can destroy these forces. Most likely, the great Russian losses in the battle for Kyiv and Donbas are connected with these changes. Russia is now discovering the bitter truth that even a war against a smaller, weaker neighbor can fail.
Larger conflicts provoke a catastrophe. Even with a nominal victory, the economy and society may remain in ruins. Britain was victorious in World War II. However, it has never been able to revive its status as a powerful state.
“Although the status of a great power is the ability to wage a great war, the only way to remain a great power is not to fight,” said historian Alan John Percival Taylor.
This paradox is now clear in Ukraine. For decades, Putin has been building up military power and waging war against a neighboring country to restore Russia's status as a great power. Instead, after the war against Ukraine, Russia will become poorer, weaker and very degenerate. Putin's war is not just a crime. This is also a bug.
See special topic: Darya Herasymchuk: Children should not live in institutions, every child should have a family Interview with the adviser – the Presidential Commissioner for Children's Rights and Children's Rehabilitation In Russia, announced the removal of the wounded from “Azovstal”, the Armed Forces do not confirm the information As if “evacuated” to Novoazovsk. Lukashenko spoke during the CSTO meeting about the “dismemberment of Ukraine”, but blamed it not Putin but the West He has traditionally criticized countries that help us to resist the aggression of the Kremlin. Mothers and wives of Mariupol defenders call on Turkish president to help rescue Ukrainian Azovstal fighters Mariupol defenders do not have the medicine they need. Ukrainian defenders destroyed a Russian X-type cruise missile aimed at Odessa Russia launched a missile strike on the Odessa region.
