The former head of British intelligence warns that a truce will now mean consolidating Russia's occupation of Ukraine's southern and eastern regions.
The West pursues two goals in war , which Moscow has launched against Ukraine : first, to preserve Ukrainian sovereignty, and secondly, to prevent Russia from organizing similar attacks against European countries in the future.
However, terrible battles are taking place in Donbass. And there is a temptation to support any step that will bring an end to this nightmare. Not surprisingly, there have been calls for an early truce. At the same time, French President Emmanuel Macron stressed that it is very important not to “humiliate” Russia for its organized invasion. Former MI6 chairman John Savers wrote about this in an article for the Financial Times, reminding that Ukraine's reaction to the French leader's comments was harsh.
The problem is that the truce will now consolidate Russia's military achievements on the ground. There is no reason to think that Vladimir Putin will agree to back down. The occupiers are actively involved in the “Russification” of the occupied regions, introducing the Russian language in schools, establishing control over the media and appointing puppets as nominal heads of local administrations. Putin has played such games before. In 2008, the then diplomatic efforts of French President Nicolas Sarkozy helped agree on a truce in Georgia, but at the cost of maintaining Russian occupation of the two regions of the country. Georgia has never regained its full sovereignty, losing control of these territories.
Read also: Zelensky on the war in Ukraine: “Deadlock is not our option, but deoccupation is slowing down”
The same thing happened in Ukraine in 2014. After the collapse of the pro-Russian government in Kyiv amid mass protests, the Russian army occupied Crimea and parts of Donbass. Sarkozy's successor, President Francois Hollande, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have negotiated an agreement with Putin that has created a loyal political process in Russia over Donbass and left Russian control of Crimea intact. These agreements were imposed on the Ukrainian president, allowing Russia to consolidate its military achievements. Today, the Ukrainian authorities are ready to continue fighting. And she certainly doesn't want a truce right now, at the height of Russia's military offensive.
It is not known what Macron actually meant when he said that Putin could not be “humiliated.” Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger recently said the peace process should begin in the coming months. The Ukrainian side fears that such comments are a prelude to another round of diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving a premature ceasefire that will allow Putin to “save face” at the cost of Ukraine.
What about Putin's position? From the first week of the war, it was clear that he had made a monumental mistake in initiating this invasion. The leaders of his security services did their best to show their support for the aggression. And many of them share Putin's desire to conquer Ukraine. But they will also see that it has harmed Russia's long-term interests. The economy will be under sanctions as long as Putin is in power. Europe will gradually end its dependence on Russian energy and will never return. And the wealth that Putin's entourage has accumulated will never return to their hands. Therefore, the position of the Russian autocrat will weaken. Failure wars do not usually extend the ruler's power.
The former MI6 director admits that Putin may be removed at some point. Although it is unlikely to happen soon. The Russian autocrat needs the support of the heads of his secret services. But the failures in Ukraine led to a conflict between the two pillars of his regime: the FSB and the army. Some leaders may be affected by the purge, as has happened in Russia's history. Dissatisfaction and criticism at the private level will spread. Ukraine calls for Russia's defeat. Again, it is not known what this means in practice. But such a call contradicts Macron's words that Putin should not be humiliated.
Read also: FT: The war in Ukraine is the beginning of a new Cold War
France has provided valuable military support to Ukraine and supported EU sanctions against Russia. But it is surprising that Macron has not found time to visit Kyiv in more than 100 days of war, although he continues to call Putin.
French companies are most reluctant to leave Russia, hoping that if they stay, it will bring them some benefits in the future. It is not surprising that the Ukrainian side is concerned about Macron's intentions. If the next round of European diplomacy reaffirms all of Russia's military achievements in Ukraine, Putin will restore political power at home and feel confident in organizing new military adventures. Ukrainians continue to struggle and need long-term support in the form of advanced weapons and tougher sanctions against Russia. This means that there are still several months of brutal battles ahead. But a premature truce will only help Putin snatch victory from defeat. None of the Western leaders should help him.
See the special topic: The US State Department believes that peace talks with Russia “are not a matter of the near future” < However, they support the diplomatic path of ending Russia's war against Ukraine. The fate of Donbass is being decided in Severodonetsk – Zelensky The city remains the epicenter of the confrontation in Donbass 13 years behind bars will be two Ukrainians who came to occupy the Kherson region They joined the enemy in 2014. The European Parliament supported a resolution recommending that Ukraine be granted EU candidate status . The body also called for arms to be supplied to Ukraine as soon as possible. At least 540,000 Ukrainians lost their homes due to the war – Mincifer A total of 195,000 property restitution applications were filed through the Action.
