It is difficult to imagine circumstances in which Washington would agree to lift sanctions and “reset” relations with Moscow while Putin is in power.
It is a mistake to understand Washington to “shoot” the truth at the wrong time. On Saturday , President Joe Biden said aloud what every Western leader secretly dreams of – the end of Vladimir Putin 's rule.
The inconvenience of the moment is that it may erroneously seem that regime change in Russia is a clear goal of NATO. Of course, this could make Putin even less willing to negotiate an agreement that would end Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This was reported by the Financial Times in an editorial.
White House officials cannot cross out Biden's words, although they have tried very hard to give them a different tone. They say that when Biden said that Putin “cannot stay in power,” he meant that he should not impose his power on other countries. Moreover, these words were not in the text of the speech he was given at the Royal Castle in Warsaw on Saturday. All this is good.
But Biden's retreat could complicate support for democratic unity, which was the main message of his Warsaw speech. On Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron called on Western leaders to avoid rhetoric that could escalate , making Putin less willing to sit down at the negotiating table. In recent days , Biden has called the Russian autocrat a “ripper” and a “war criminal,” again, publicly announcing what Western leaders are saying privately. In practice, will this change Putin's calculations? Answer: most likely not.
The Russian leader has already crossed the point of no return in his brutal, albeit terribly inept, war against Ukraine. He made it clear that his ultimate goal was to return Ukraine and other post-Soviet countries to Moscow's control. Any truce or major agreement that Putin may offer to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky will therefore be viewed with great skepticism.
But the growing sense that eliminating Putin is America's real ultimate goal could make it difficult to approach any interim agreement. On Sunday, British Foreign Secretary Liz Trass said Western sanctions could be lifted if Russia agrees to end the war . This is a departure from Biden's position. He was careful not to say when and whether US sanctions against Russia would be lifted. Given Biden's views on Putin, it is difficult to imagine the circumstances in which Washington will return Moscow to the structure of the global economy while Putin is still in place.
Moreover, US domestic pressure tends to escalate. Unlike American history after the Vietnam War, the American liberal consensus is as active today as the right-wing conservative. In a sense, this is a reaction to how Donald Trump admires Putin. The contrast between Biden's message of “democracy versus autocracy” and Trump's conspiratorial meeting with Putin in Helsinki in 2018 has a strong impact on Democrats. For the first time since the Cold War, when Republicans split into isolationists and internationalists, American liberals have become as “hawks” as conservatives. In such a climate, it would be politically painful for the Biden administration to agree to any “reset” with Russia while Putin is in power. Talks about diplomatic “concessions” for Putin and getting out of the quagmire of war against Ukraine “while preserving the face” seem less and less convincing. This is the potential disagreement in the West.
Read also: Putin must leave: what does Biden's speech in Poland mean?
As Biden has made it clear that the United States will not intervene directly in Ukraine , the hidden signal now is that the West will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. It also means that it will be very difficult for America to sign any agreement with Putin. Some European countries, in particular Poland and the Baltic States, are much more determined than others, such as Germany. However, as the war continues and Europe accepts millions of refugees and suffers from low economic growth, the gap between America's “red lines” and Europe's “pain threshold” could be a problem.
See the special topic: The occupiers destroyed the house of the leader of the group Druha Rika near Gostomel . The house burned down completely. Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity are beyond doubt – Zelensky Ahead – a new round of talks between Ukraine and Russia. Bloomberg: There will be no peace agreement in Ukraine until each side sees itself as a winner It is possible that Kiev's consent to neutrality will help to agree on peace, but so far Putin's demands are much greater. We are ready to go to neutrality and non-nuclear status – Zelensky The President needs real security guarantees for this, not a “paper a la the Budapest Memorandum”. “I am the president, so for now we will decide whether there will be certain forces here,” – Zelensky .
