Due to the loss of forces, Moscow is in a hurry to achieve what it wants, but the West, despite all the rhetoric, has not yet decided exactly how it is ready to fight the autocratic axis.
Turning points are not always some radical changes . Sometimes this is the point when history can no longer be ignored. On February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine. And at the same time, the world was undeniably divided into two blocks.
Whatever the outcome of Vladimir Putin's war, geopolitics is now divided between the West and Sino-Russian Eurasia. All other countries, including India, are now in between. In a calmer world, warring blocs could coexist in a Cold War-like mode. But it will take time for such stability to emerge, the Financial Times reports. The short-term perspective will be uncertain. The questions that are being asked now are about big changes. Will we return to the nuclear age? Will globalization be abolished? Will there be no more cooperation in the fight against climate change? Can democracies overcome autocracy? Until recently, most people in the West knew the answers to all these questions. It is logical that Putin, whose main motive is hatred of the West, became the one who lowered the curtain. But it is also quite ironic.
Western strategists tended to write off Russia as a declining force. But the loss of status is forcing Moscow to rush into its adventures more than China, which until recently waited patiently for its time. The most obvious question is which of the two will set the pace. So far, the answer is: maybe no one. To the surprise of many, Joe Biden has in recent weeks become a “crusader” of global freedom in the spirit of Ronald Reagan. Biden's Warsaw speech became famous for his impromptu remarks that Putin needed to leave. But his formal remarks were also significant. Biden said the battle between autocracy and democracy was ongoing.
“We need to harden and be ready for the long battle ahead,” he said.
America's unofficial goal is to change the Russian regime. Among the three major military forces, China still seems the most committed to the status quo. None of what Xi Jinping said or did after the Russian invasion can compare to Biden's “thrown glove.” Putin has reduced his military goals to control a piece of Ukrainian territory and establish Ukrainian neutrality. Both goals can be achieved. The United States under Biden remains an unknown variable.
Read also: Russia's war against Ukraine may drag on for years – US General
At some point, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will test the depth of his American counterpart's rhetoric. Before reports of Russian war crimes in Bucha and other cities last week, Zelensky spoke of his readiness to reach a peace deal and wanted to meet with Putin in person. The West insists that only Zelensky can decide what is acceptable and what is not. But that's half the story. The other rug is that the United States is unlikely to lift all or at least most of its sanctions while Putin is in power. According to Biden, sanctions have become “a new type of economic governance capable of inflicting such damage that can compete with military power.” It means that they will be used in the larger American struggle for democracy. Russia, which until February 24 was the world's 11th largest economy, will soon not even be in its twenties, Biden said.
President of the United States.
This is the worst global bipolarity. And Putin was directly involved in her birth. Biden also got the role of the one who sets the conditions. There are three most obvious areas for this.
The first is economic. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, controversy continued over whether a currency, including the Chinese yuan, could replace the dollar. Most economists believe that the US currency is unlikely to lose its role in the near future. Much depends on what Washington is going to do. America has demonstrated its extraordinary power in blocking the great economy and persecuting its global elite. Elites in other countries, including many kleptocrats, are now making emergency plans. The governments of developing countries will closely monitor how the West will force Moscow to pay reparations to Kyiv for the damage caused by the war. Biden can confiscate part or all of Russia's foreign exchange reserves to use that money to rebuild the country. He set a precedent earlier this year when the United States confiscated half of Afghan reserves. Russia's frozen assets exceed $ 300 billion. If Washington does the same to Moscow as it did to Kabul, it could lead to the abandonment of the dollar.
Read also: WSJ: The war in Ukraine has shown that a rules-based world order is a myth
< p>The second concern is the global arms race. Prior to Putin's invasion, China and Russia were already upgrading their nuclear systems, including hypersonic missiles. The United States is now also increasing its defense spending. Ultimately, Washington could increase military spending to 5 percent of GDP. Meanwhile, most European countries no longer need to be persuaded to spend 2% of GDP on their armies, as required by NATO's charter. Countries around the world will decide that Ukraine drowned out nonsense when it gave up its nuclear arsenal in 1994. The proliferation of nuclear weapons in the coming years will be a major pain.
The third problem is ideological. The most unexpected reaction to Putin's aggression was the intensity of Western public reaction. But the open question is how long it will be like that. Polls show the rise in popularity of right-wing radical Marine Le Pen before the French election. And this is reminiscent of the fragile nature of democracy. Also, Donald Trump is going to hold a rematch of Joe Biden in 2024. Trump and Le Pen will represent a completely different West, different from the one led by Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron. Undoubtedly, a new era has already begun. But the West's determination has not yet been determined.
On April 1, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that a meeting between Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin could take place in Istanbul. However, the Ukrainian head of state during a recent meeting with journalists, which took place after the world saw footage after the atrocities of the Russians in Bucha, said that his meeting with Putin may not take place at all.
“Our victory is so great that it can be seen from the moon,” Orban said after the next election in Hungary, listing all opponents of his Fidesz party. According to the Hungarian Prime Minister, among them is the Ukrainian President. Why? Answer in the article by Oleksiy Koval “ Orban won the election and declared Zelensky his opponent” .
See the special topic: Vereshchuk called on residents of two oblasts to evacuate After the start of active hostilities, such an opportunity may no longer exist. Podoliak accused Orban of “media hype” All proposals are being discussed through special channels, but not through the Hungarian prime minister. The occupiers kidnap civilians and pretend to be “prisoners of war” – Denisov They are disguised in military uniforms and shown in the propaganda media. The United States is imposing new sanctions on Russia's largest banks, as well as on Putin's children The sanctions are being imposed after the world saw the effects of the Russian occupation of Bucha. The aggressor hinders democratic transformation: human rights organizations from around the world call for the expulsion of Russia from the UN Security Council The statement was signed by almost 40 organizations.
