But stopping the invasion will not mean that the war is over and the Kremlin will not go on the offensive again.
Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin is likely to be forced to halt his failed offensive against Ukraine , which has been going on for more than a month. This scenario could come true a few weeks after the Russian army suffered too heavy losses.
Retired US Army General Kevin Ryan told Business Insider. He is confident that his forecast is correct, given that Putin has failed to achieve his main goals in Ukraine. The lightning capture of Kiev and other major cities did not take place. The Russian military also failed to destroy Ukrainian power grids. Meanwhile, Russia's economy continues to shrink under pressure from Western sanctions imposed as a result of the war.
“Putin will have to stop his war in Ukraine sooner or later. This may happen in a few weeks. And the reason is not that he wants to do it, but because he will have no choice. He has, in fact, exhausted all the capabilities of his army in Ukraine, ”said Ryan, who also worked as a military attache in Russia.
In February, the Russian army had a numerical advantage over the Ukrainian-backed Armed Forces. But the Ukrainian military was still able to retaliate, causing heavy losses to Russian forces . And their invasion came to a standstill. Estimates of the Institute for War Research show that the APU forced the Russian army to move to defensive positions. And Putin's troops began to dig for a “long and exhausting conflict.” Ryan points to the “big staffing problem” in the Russian military.
“There is no significant military unit left in Russia that has not visited Ukraine. They are all in battle. There is almost no part of the Russian army that would not be sent to Ukraine. So if Putin needs an escalation, how will he do it? ”The former US general said.
He added that at the moment, the occupation of all of Ukraine, as Putin wanted, is “impossible.”
“He does not have the military forces to capture all of Ukraine and occupy it. The Russian authorities have exaggerated the capabilities of their military, “Ryan said.
Read also: Atlantic Council: The war against Ukraine could end in either genocide or the defeat of Russia
According to the former US military, Moscow can further increase violence and bring even more destruction and suffering to Ukraine. It may even win small tactical victories in clashes with the smaller Ukrainian army.
“But even after all this, he can't be more strategically successful with such an army,” Ryan said.
At the same time, in his opinion, stopping the war against Ukraine will not necessarily mean the end of violence. Violence can continue even during negotiations between the parties. And stopping the invasion will not be “final” until Putin makes enough concessions from Ukraine and the West, given the heavy sanctions.
“So until he gets enough concessions, I think he will want to support the gray area where the military operation can be resumed at any time. That's the threat, “Ryan said.
See the special topic: Russia is sending reinforcements from Georgia to Ukraine – US Department of Defense The aggressor has suffered serious losses and is now trying to close them by dragging satellites into the war and using the reserve in the occupied territories. A sniper “Bagira” from ORDLO was captured, who killed dozens of prisoners . At least 40 executed people in the hands of an executioner in a skirt. In the Kiev region, the APU began to launch a counteroffensive – Danilov Already liberated several settlements. More than 37,000 people left the humanitarian corridors in a week, and more than 7,000 in a day. In particular, 26,477 Mariupol residents were saved during the week. On the day of Biden's visit to Poland, they held a campaign “Enough of promises, start acting!” Its organizers and participants were Ukrainians forced to flee the war unleashed by Putin.
