Whatever happens next in Ukraine, the world that existed before February 24 no longer exists, a new dangerous era has come, in which we will have to learn to live.
Although spring is in full swing in Europe, the continent, seems to be experiencing the coldest moments of the Cold War again. In fact, the Russian invasion of Ukraine not only ended a long period of peace in Europe, but also destroyed the European security architecture on which the world was founded.
Former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer writes about this in an article for Project Syndicate. He adds that, of course, all this did not happen suddenly. Eight years before February 24, when Vladimir Putin sent tens of thousands of troops to Ukraine, his troops annexed Crimea and waged a hybrid war in the Donbas. All this time, people have been fighting and dying in the Ukrainian east, and the world has been silently watching the Kremlin dismember a sovereign country, cutting off regions from it. Since 2014, the European architecture of peace has existed only on paper, while Western Europe has pretended to be active in Russia's political intentions. The previous European order, based on the absolute integrity of borders, has been replaced by the old system of European policy of the great powers, in which brute force is used unilaterally to establish a zone of influence. The threat of another world war has returned to Europe. And Europeans are neither politically, nor militarily, nor psychologically ready for this.
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No one knows when or how Vladimir Putin's war will end. But the return of the old policy of brute force makes three scenarios possible. First, Russia can win by destroying Ukraine as an independent and sovereign country. This will immediately put a deadly threat to neighboring countries, including Moldova and Georgia, but also to some NATO countries such as Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. If the alliance is drawn into a direct conflict with Russia, the war will quickly escalate to continental proportions. Given the nuclear risks, the whole of democratic Europe will be under threat.
The second scenario says that Putin will not be able to conquer Ukraine, even using the most brutal military force he has. Ukraine will survive as a sovereign state thanks to the courage of its people, as well as weapons and financial support from the West. But since the current Russian government will remain, it can be said that Ukraine did not lose and Putin did not win.
In the third scenario, there will be a truce based on a compromise that can be agreed upon. This option, at least for now, seems the least likely, given the atrocities committed by the Russian army in Bucha and other Ukrainian cities. From the point of view of Europe and the West, the first of these scenarios is the worst. But they all make any return to the old status quo impossible. Peace requires trust. And there is no hope of building that trust while Putin is in power and Russia cultivates its own totalitarianism. Therefore, Europe's eastern borders will be constantly threatened by hot, cold and hybrid conflict. As part of its broader response, Europe will have to deal with Russia's nuclear blackmail. This means that we will have to build our own nuclear deterrence strategy.
The nuclear issue itself demonstrates the epoch-making scale of the challenge facing Europe. Since the beginning of the Russian war against Ukraine, strengthening European capabilities in defense and deterrence has been a top priority. Moreover, although this process must be conducted in the context of NATO, Donald Trump's potential presidency in the United States shows that Europe must be ready to act on its own. First of all, Europeans should not cultivate illusions. Now that Putin has destroyed Europe's architecture of peace, war and military thinking have returned to the continent. Europe's new reality is characterized by constant political risks, an arms race and even the threat of escalating the cold conflict into a hot one.
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For the EU, profound and far-reaching changes go far beyond the current turning point. As Putin's Russia threatens Europe with its military, the EU must become a geopolitical player with strong deterrence, while maintaining its traditional strengths, such as a free market and legal coherence. To maintain its technological advantage, the EU will have to do much more to support innovation and increase high-tech domestic capacity.
Politically, the EU's center of gravity will shift to the east. And EU-NATO relations will be even closer. The same should happen with the relationship between Washington and Brussels. After all, without US military power, Europe probably would not have been able to do anything in response to Putin's aggression against Ukraine. US military protection will be indispensable for many years to come. But given the possibility of a new presidential term for Trump or the emergence of someone like him, Europeans need to think about increasing their contribution to transatlantic security. Hoping for the best, Europe must prepare for the worst. Few people today remember what “worse” is. Whole generations lived in peace and prosperity. It's time to defend Europe, which has made it possible.
See the special topic: Negative visa-free travel. Instructions for abolishing visa facilitation for Russians have been published The European Commission has explained to member state consulates how to now issue visas to Russian citizens. Putin may declare annexation of temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine on May 9 – Ministry of Internal Affairs This includes Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts. Amnesty International will help the Ministry of Internal Affairs to investigate Russian war crimes The organization's experts are already cooperating with local authorities and the Cabinet of Ministers in investigating Russian war crimes. Forbes: NATO must destroy all Russian troops in Ukraine if there is a nuclear strike The Alliance must make clear to the Kremlin how terrible its response will be if nuclear taboos from 1945 will be broken. Zelensky holds online meeting with 43rd US President George W. Bush Bush expresses support for Ukraine
